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If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2026-04-13T22:22:40.961472Z","creationDate":"2026-04-13T22:22:40.961464Z","endDate":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":true,"restricted":true,"liquidity":227840.0894,"volume":11663642.214697013,"openInterest":2712107.479506,"createdAt":"2026-04-13T16:59:23.035481Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T00:30:47.034189Z","competitive":0.9596698735634942,"volume24hr":164880.37717999998,"volume1wk":2985516.173131001,"volume1mo":10530748.314183977,"volume1yr":11663642.214696992,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":227840.0894,"commentCount":0,"markets":[{"id":"1971905","question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?","conditionId":"0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","liquidity":"231505.3588","startDate":"2026-04-13T22:16:43.957993Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.295\", 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Traffic Returns to Normal","seriesType":"single","recurrence":"monthly","image":"","icon":"","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"createdAt":"2026-03-31T18:45:41.417299Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T00:29:47.085057Z","volume24hr":1434328.007514999,"volume":47794069.048376404,"liquidity":1666014.97015,"commentCount":2332,"requiresTranslation":false}],"tags":[{"id":"101253","label":"Macro Geopolitics","slug":"macro-geopolitics","forceShow":false,"createdAt":"2024-11-13T01:49:20.436741Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T17:19:59.236496Z","requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"104139","label":"Hormuz","slug":"hormuz","forceShow":false,"createdAt":"2026-03-09T20:12:10.823469Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T17:26:23.150452Z","isCarousel":false,"requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"309","label":"Oil","slug":"oil","forceShow":false,"publishedAt":"2023-11-02 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Even as diplomatic talks advance and limited transits resume with US assistance, analysts project four-to-six months for full normalization once any deal is reached, factoring in demining operations and repositioning over 1,500 stranded vessels. Trader consensus, reflected in the 70.5% implied probability against a return to normal flows by end-June, prices in these logistical and security hurdles over optimistic Iranian timelines. Key near-term catalysts include further Doha negotiations and any escalation in naval activity.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-05-31T00:30:46.651Z"}}