{"$schema":"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/schemas/Event.json","id":"660108","ticker":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2026-07-02T21:49:34.448693Z","creationDate":"2026-07-02T21:51:32.692276Z","endDate":"2026-08-31T00:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":911115.16771,"volume":10155593.870628005,"openInterest":5165445.362192,"sortBy":"ascending","createdAt":"2026-07-02T20:43:25.782197Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-05T07:08:12.822173Z","competitive":0.8990986535997662,"volume24hr":2008636.12369,"volume1wk":6216234.929569993,"volume1mo":10116262.293602994,"volume1yr":10155593.870627994,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":911115.16771,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":0,"markets":[{"id":"2774056","question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?","conditionId":"0x60c2c085ee8c16bc8f2419739a94971d4c9d00f637ead10fc0f540afa1be64e8","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-08-31T00:00:00Z","liquidity":"418093.96","startDate":"2026-07-02T21:49:34.448693Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.165\", \"0.835\"]","volume":"7176408.657589005","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-07-02T20:43:26.375208Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-05T07:07:54.738378Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0xF43d55F3A8B7484Ed4B6931f93CB6F9eF5Dd369D","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"August 31","groupItemThreshold":"1","questionID":"0xdd850af7646a3fee315f2dd27e94bbc4680dbf4c231d12be3c35c522a10c44fa","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":7176408.657589005,"liquidityNum":418093.96,"endDateIso":"2026-08-31","startDateIso":"2026-07-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":884991.4683989997,"volume1wk":3379304.889194002,"volume1mo":7137077.080564002,"volume1yr":7176408.657589002,"clobTokenIds":"[\"105426373826369935595603860663411604941599130211176020843036778867927711117332\", \"90869494087977018607792751230236923002303032923064138180950209430688758061828\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":884991.4683989997,"volume1wkClob":3379304.889194002,"volume1moClob":7137077.080564002,"volume1yrClob":7176408.657589002,"volumeClob":7176408.657589005,"liquidityClob":418093.96,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-07-02T21:48:44Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8990986535997662,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"778330","conditionId":"0x60c2c085ee8c16bc8f2419739a94971d4c9d00f637ead10fc0f540afa1be64e8","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":400,"startDate":"2026-07-04","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":200,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.01,"oneDayPriceChange":0.03,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.01,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.06,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.17,"lastTradePrice":0.17,"bestBid":0.16,"bestAsk":0.17,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-07-02T20:43:47.072562Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null,"version":"v1"},{"id":"3128885","question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?","conditionId":"0x49479ffa88e2897569b1d413e3bc558003e21912edee09d080ca6bac6eb20805","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-15-20260727171036148","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-08-15T00:00:00Z","liquidity":"494694.32647","startDate":"2026-07-27T17:50:28.17351Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.0355\", \"0.9645\"]","volume":"2979185.213038999","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-07-27T17:47:57.330773Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-05T07:07:54.738378Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0xF43d55F3A8B7484Ed4B6931f93CB6F9eF5Dd369D","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"August 15","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0x1175b30e91c8444820928dfc7602d21833a4e45f3d9275685bd493dd39255454","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":2979185.213038999,"liquidityNum":494694.32647,"endDateIso":"2026-08-15","startDateIso":"2026-07-27","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":1123644.6552910004,"volume1wk":2836930.0403759913,"volume1mo":2979185.2130389917,"volume1yr":2979185.2130389917,"clobTokenIds":"[\"46733641692303589497067975944983817973005458083506506012270818964693443326225\", \"6852778822128329267483378092920068275366251150099721072856191658510604396679\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":1123644.6552910004,"volume1wkClob":2836930.0403759913,"volume1moClob":2979185.2130389917,"volume1yrClob":2979185.2130389917,"volumeClob":2979185.213038999,"liquidityClob":494694.32647,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-07-27T17:49:40Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.822530593511344,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":200,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.001,"oneDayPriceChange":0.0085,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.0025,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.009,"lastTradePrice":0.035,"bestBid":0.035,"bestAsk":0.036,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-07-27T17:48:07.031976Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null,"version":"v1"}],"series":[{"id":"11492","ticker":"hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal","slug":"hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal","title":"Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal","seriesType":"single","recurrence":"monthly","image":"","icon":"","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"createdAt":"2026-03-31T18:45:41.417299Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-05T07:08:32.212321Z","volume24hr":2371158.346709,"volume":19177687.774696004,"liquidity":1398871.81351,"commentCount":3925,"requiresTranslation":false}],"tags":[{"id":"100265","label":"Geopolitics","slug":"geopolitics","forceShow":true,"createdAt":"2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:49:04.209055Z","requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"78","label":"Iran","slug":"iran","forceShow":false,"publishedAt":"2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00","updatedBy":15,"createdAt":"2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:19:53.890971Z","requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"309","label":"Oil","slug":"oil","forceShow":false,"publishedAt":"2023-11-02 21:53:13.969+00","createdAt":"2023-11-02T21:53:13.977Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:40:55.156199Z","isCarousel":false,"requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"2","label":"Politics","slug":"politics","forceShow":false,"publishedAt":"2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00","updatedBy":13,"createdAt":"2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:39:54.201881Z","forceHide":true,"requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"262","label":"Strait of Hormuz","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","forceShow":false,"publishedAt":"2023-11-02 21:45:34.694+00","createdAt":"2023-11-02T21:45:34.718Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-15T21:01:56.57983Z","isCarousel":false,"requiresTranslation":false}],"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"seriesSlug":"hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal","gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"estimateValue":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities remain the dominant driver of subdued Strait of Hormuz traffic, with transits still well below pre-2026 averages of roughly 100 vessels daily. Renewed escalations in July 2026 triggered a fresh slump, as a U.S. naval blockade and Iranian targeting of vessels cut weekly passages sharply from earlier levels. Partial reopening after the June 17 MoU produced only modest recovery—averaging around 28 ships per day through early July—reflecting shipowners’ caution amid elevated insurance costs and security risks. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty continues to support elevated oil-price volatility and supply-disruption premiums, while Polymarket trader consensus assigns near-zero probability to normalization by late July. Key near-term catalysts include any further diplomatic progress or additional military incidents that could either accelerate or further delay a sustained return to normal volumes.","context_requires_regen":true,"context_updated_at":"2026-08-05T07:01:30.928Z"},"version":"v1"}