{"id":"743877","ticker":"will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721164140039","slug":"will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721164140039","title":"Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.\n\nA hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. \n\nIf a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. A storm that briefly moves over open water and returns to make an additional landfall counts as a separate landfall only if the NHC's own reporting identifies it as such; a single continuous track that does not leave and re-strike land counts once.\n\nThis market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added to the count.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2026-07-24T16:06:04.070779Z","creationDate":"2026-07-24T16:07:11.470973Z","endDate":"2026-12-31T16:59:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721163819000-R170eGjaZ8Xs.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721163819000-R170eGjaZ8Xs.png","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":838.70431,"volume":4467.96054,"openInterest":2040.404839,"sortBy":"ascending","createdAt":"2026-07-24T16:04:00.324006Z","updatedAt":"2026-11-12T15:36:10.365704Z","competitive":0.8079787905567479,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":838.70431,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":0,"markets":[{"id":"3083663","question":"Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?","conditionId":"0x4f7aa5dfb158d23fb33bba02b925735088436d7d8f37d6fdb306eb17753329c9","slug":"will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721164140039","resolutionSource":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/","endDate":"2026-12-31T16:59:00Z","liquidity":"838.70431","startDate":"2026-07-24T16:06:04.070779Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721163819000-R170eGjaZ8Xs.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721163819000-R170eGjaZ8Xs.png","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.\n\nA hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. \n\nIf a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. A storm that briefly moves over open water and returns to make an additional landfall counts as a separate landfall only if the NHC's own reporting identifies it as such; a single continuous track that does not leave and re-strike land counts once.\n\nThis market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added to the count.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.0125\", \"0.9875\"]","volume":"4467.96054","active":true,"closed":false,"createdAt":"2026-07-24T16:04:00.789073Z","updatedAt":"2026-11-12T15:33:55.659264Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0xF43d55F3A8B7484Ed4B6931f93CB6F9eF5Dd369D","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"questionID":"0x8a2d2fa02b24ebe78aa5c52e2e69dc939e076875c7f9dec23362065133be7e1d","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":4467.96054,"liquidityNum":838.70431,"endDateIso":"2026-12-31","startDateIso":"2026-07-24","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":"[\"11708377858518326614542617218633774719633071583708311264559610088340065762646\", \"6344970570166685879976455617767834637598638960472093544307676689573761674045\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"250","umaReward":"0.6","volumeClob":4467.96054,"liquidityClob":838.70431,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-07-24T16:05:15Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8079787905567479,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":6.5,"spread":0.005,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.015,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.007,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.023,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.0965,"lastTradePrice":0.017,"bestBid":0.01,"bestAsk":0.015,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-07-24T16:04:07.710275Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"feeType":"weather_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25},"fallbackResolutionType":"none","resolutionMechanism":"oracle","tradingEligible":true,"version":"v1"}],"tags":[{"id":"84","label":"Weather","slug":"weather","forceShow":false,"publishedAt":"2023-11-02 21:17:34.81+00","createdAt":"2023-11-02T21:17:34.814Z","updatedAt":"2026-03-09T22:33:58.564774Z"},{"id":"87","label":"climate","slug":"climate","publishedAt":"2023-11-02 21:17:38.407+00","createdAt":"2023-11-02T21:17:38.424Z","updatedAt":"2026-03-09T22:28:03.35922Z"},{"id":"102023","label":"hurricane","slug":"hurricane","createdAt":"2025-04-07T20:00:43.649061Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:31:50.132907Z"},{"id":"102186","label":"Hurricane Season","slug":"hurricane-season","createdAt":"2025-05-29T21:41:49.364539Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T17:20:40.7347Z"}],"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":true,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"estimateValue":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_requires_regen":true},"version":"v1"}