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He continues to exercise executive authority on foreign policy, defense spending, and diplomacy while entering the final year of his second term, which concludes with the 2027 presidential election. No verified statements or procedural steps indicate an early resignation or removal. 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The fixed five-year term gives the prime minister—now Andy Burnham—discretion to wait until closer to the August 2029 deadline absent a major crisis or parliamentary defeat. Recent by-elections, including the August 13 Clacton contest, and any autumn economic or policy developments remain the clearest near-term catalysts that could shift timing and crowd-sourced probabilities.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-08-13T09:46:48.999Z"},"version":"v1"},{"id":"17526","ticker":"china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31","slug":"china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31","title":"China x India military clash by...?","description":"This is a market on the likelihood of a military clash between China and India occurring by December 31.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-01-30T21:29:15.866418Z","creationDate":"2025-01-30T21:29:15.866415Z","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":7545.5097,"volume":326772.807369,"openInterest":21651.46684,"createdAt":"2025-01-30T19:15:09.756401Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-13T09:47:27.759047Z","competitive":0.8408837688410519,"volume24hr":146.12,"volume1wk":15207.18509,"volume1mo":46217.811824000004,"volume1yr":326825.07736899954,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":7545.5097,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":15,"markets":[{"id":"521028","question":"China x India military clash by June 30?","conditionId":"0x69eecc28e594a1c524ea95f095d6e86eb1bfd8a67277eda3010413e9edf68e03","slug":"china-x-india-military-clash-by-june-30","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-01-30T21:29:01.73Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 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Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"37693.17445","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-01-30T19:15:10.907371Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-15T23:31:07.162286Z","closedTime":"2025-07-01 22:05:08.339341+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"June 30","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xaaee7c59ddcc8acf258c7524aab4bb8737c76d3bd12e603d572ac881f7e79bbb","umaEndDate":"2025-07-01 22:05:08.339341+00","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":37693.17445,"endDateIso":"2025-12-31","startDateIso":"2025-01-30","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":11207.9985,"volume1mo":14173.342340000005,"volume1yr":37693.174450000006,"gameStartTime":"2025-09-10 02:17:00+00","clobTokenIds":"[\"82814855654672504061247670166274349069234747344604118638495723199148512283270\", \"28181983066814192341972022528872656900287488784777109397388022150121214816984\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":11207.9985,"volume1moClob":14173.342340000005,"volume1yrClob":37693.174450000006,"volumeClob":37693.17445,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-01-30T21:27:50Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.0015,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.0075,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.0175,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null,"version":"v1"},{"id":"521029","question":"China x India military clash by December 31?","conditionId":"0x689a77ca28cf59efae262fd37d07aa787194d52b13bbe009a223de15bf5c62af","slug":"china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-01-30T21:29:11.808Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 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Officials on both sides have downplayed specific encroachment claims while noting routine transgressions tied to the undemarcated border, following earlier 2024-2025 disengagements at Depsang and Demchok in Ladakh that enabled limited trade resumption and pilgrimage restarts. Ongoing forward deployments, infrastructure activity, and periodic face-offs continue to shape trader views on the likelihood of a kinetic clash before year-end, with diplomatic mechanisms and patrol protocols serving as the main near-term stabilizers.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-08-13T08:52:18.547Z"},"version":"v1"},{"id":"17549","ticker":"natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025","slug":"natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025","title":"NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor military personnel to qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia.\n\nFor military personnel to qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. 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