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He has repeatedly stated he will serve until then despite ongoing parliamentary gridlock, multiple prime ministerial changes, and repeated budget disputes following the 2024 snap legislative elections. In recent months, Macron has focused on appointing allies to key state institutions ahead of the 2027 vote while signaling withdrawal from active politics afterward. No credible mechanism or sufficient political pressure has emerged to force an earlier departure, leaving traders to price a very low probability of an exit before mid-2026. 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Recent May 2026 local and devolved elections exposed sharp Labour declines amid rising Reform UK support and internal party tensions, yet these results have not triggered the kind of polling collapse or crisis that historically prompts an early dissolution. Traders therefore see limited near-term risk of a snap announcement, with market pricing reflecting the absence of immediate catalysts and the government’s focus on stabilizing its position ahead of the full parliamentary term.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-05-31T17:01:26.317Z"}},{"id":"17526","ticker":"china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31","slug":"china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31","title":"China x India military clash by...?","description":"This is a market on the likelihood of a military clash between China and India occurring by December 31.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-01-30T21:29:15.866418Z","creationDate":"2025-01-30T21:29:15.866415Z","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":10246.7483,"volume":251465.7714869998,"openInterest":12342.457294,"createdAt":"2025-01-30T19:15:09.756401Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:11:13.861405Z","competitive":0.8620689655172414,"volume24hr":4.59,"volume1wk":24483.033577,"volume1mo":41578.394829000004,"volume1yr":251465.77148699944,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":10246.7483,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":13,"markets":[{"id":"521029","question":"China x India military clash by December 31?","conditionId":"0x689a77ca28cf59efae262fd37d07aa787194d52b13bbe009a223de15bf5c62af","slug":"china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-01-30T21:29:11.808Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 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Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"73185.754279","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-01-30T19:15:12.055523Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-15T23:31:07.159334Z","closedTime":"2026-01-01 09:34:37+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"December 31","groupItemThreshold":"1","questionID":"0x21a57e5bd440a2fa423cdaeffd795ec4dc3a6a7ed297f9fc630f59fcbabfd1fd","umaEndDate":"2026-01-01T09:34:37Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":73185.754279,"endDateIso":"2025-12-31","startDateIso":"2025-01-30","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":1986.7765,"volume1mo":8221.565354,"volume1yr":73185.75427899958,"gameStartTime":"2025-09-10 02:17:00+00","clobTokenIds":"[\"62499647704758013801224496519154801919449219197687180369505612744147504118777\", \"89667254973027475163940771416019167537897714895546880163448338769528535684137\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":1986.7765,"volume1moClob":8221.565354,"volume1yrClob":73185.75427899958,"volumeClob":73185.754279,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-01-30T21:28:00Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.0015,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.003,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.0215,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"521028","question":"China x India military clash by June 30?","conditionId":"0x69eecc28e594a1c524ea95f095d6e86eb1bfd8a67277eda3010413e9edf68e03","slug":"china-x-india-military-clash-by-june-30","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-01-30T21:29:01.73Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 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Both sides continue using established mechanisms to manage ground incidents, with the next round of border discussions scheduled for 2026. Infrastructure upgrades persist on each side of the disputed Himalayan frontier, yet public statements emphasize stability over confrontation. Unresolved territorial claims, including in areas such as Depsang, Demchok, and Arunachal Pradesh, sustain underlying friction, while external factors like broader Indo-Pacific alignments add caution. 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. 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U.S.-brokered negotiations through early 2026, including trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, produced no progress on this core issue, with Russia conditioning any settlement on explicit Ukrainian concessions or withdrawals that Kyiv has repeatedly ruled out. President Zelenskyy has reaffirmed this position as non-negotiable through February 2026, even as limited ceasefires and prisoner exchanges occurred in May. Ongoing military activity, including Ukrainian advances in several sectors, has not altered the diplomatic impasse. These legal, political, and negotiating dynamics sustain trader expectations that a qualifying agreement remains unlikely before year-end deadlines.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-05-31T16:01:31.920Z"}},{"id":"18558","ticker":"ukraine-election-called-in-2025","slug":"ukraine-election-called-in-2025","title":"Ukraine election called by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-02-14T19:30:42.775652Z","creationDate":"2025-02-14T19:30:42.775649Z","endDate":"2026-12-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":31953.98085,"volume":1539768.919195999,"openInterest":30093.881897,"createdAt":"2025-02-13T19:39:15.966366Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:16:18.296005Z","competitive":0.9071117561683599,"volume24hr":6.5,"volume1wk":52721.80398300001,"volume1mo":206934.784252,"volume1yr":1258345.979903001,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":31953.98085,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":36,"markets":[{"id":"523343","question":"Ukraine election called in 2025?","conditionId":"0xf3d74c153a35436ff82a5f78200104975c5841140ace763f2954adb340cca511","slug":"ukraine-election-called-in-2025","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-02-14T19:28:26.116Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"982716.694339","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-02-13T19:39:17.849008Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T23:15:57.010175Z","closedTime":"2026-01-01 09:11:37+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"December 31, 2025","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xa094043bf8108d863998270c7f412507cd34679fa71dfb0bdd8e064ce1a92eb6","umaEndDate":"2026-01-01T09:11:37Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":982716.694339,"endDateIso":"2025-12-31","startDateIso":"2025-02-14","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":51836.18834100001,"volume1mo":165783.746216,"volume1yr":982716.6943390013,"clobTokenIds":"[\"22255463452594162709449800579658835371746668793825841462318307382376621533755\", \"57160884655103428512814247631012981773015723019889832549493437551469480061242\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":51836.18834100001,"volume1moClob":165783.746216,"volume1yrClob":982716.6943390013,"volumeClob":982716.694339,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-02-14T19:27:16Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.001,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.009,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.034,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"610380","question":"Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?","conditionId":"0x707125b175feb87a7d28c1e3b0e8e834f11c0dff65edac8c4fe5d1e12bf8fc33","slug":"ukraine-election-called-by-june-30-2026-392","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"15060.5002","startDate":"2025-09-23T23:18:41.037Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 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Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.025\", \"0.975\"]","volume":"275629.2855639996","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-09-23T22:49:20.966682Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:15:11.417407Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"June 30, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"2","questionID":"0xcd56a2aab3432e062ad2520816476d101047d74039cb6b06eb80997243459e58","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":275629.2855639996,"liquidityNum":15060.5002,"endDateIso":"2025-12-31","startDateIso":"2025-09-23","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":6.5,"volume1wk":885.6156420000001,"volume1mo":41151.038036000005,"volume1yr":275629.2855639997,"clobTokenIds":"[\"46392352440640691691403913163796829338832584619874037984805155658143745393622\", \"38746974225100760605049476871091018825176822620072388068043468416649080453478\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":6.5,"volume1wkClob":885.6156420000001,"volume1moClob":41151.038036000005,"volume1yrClob":275629.2855639997,"volumeClob":275629.2855639996,"liquidityClob":15060.5002,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-09-23T23:18:19Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.815910249872514,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"48776","conditionId":"0x707125b175feb87a7d28c1e3b0e8e834f11c0dff65edac8c4fe5d1e12bf8fc33","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":1,"startDate":"2025-12-09","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.01,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.0005,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.0005,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.0105,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.017,"lastTradePrice":0.021,"bestBid":0.02,"bestAsk":0.03,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-09-23T23:17:51.796018Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"734115","question":"Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?","conditionId":"0xdab71ad1d7d7661435f2556eb8e29473d322d9d8af2705a9732c4872629de090","slug":"ukraine-election-called-by-march-31-2026","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-12-01T12:39:26.304555Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 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Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"269086.32246999943","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-11-28T15:35:34.322846Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T23:15:56.99533Z","closedTime":"2026-04-01 07:36:01+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"March 31, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"1","questionID":"0xe7aec12e4dc3eb9f723c35cf5898876b7bfa46363bd880b97ce89a25dd03e8c5","umaEndDate":"2026-04-01T07:36:01Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":269086.32246999943,"endDateIso":"2025-12-31","startDateIso":"2025-12-01","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":"[\"21820831062008538748141247411218227574369608245896609859008771625480147552641\", \"66322896688384299574504337711710693470719761654756732668481875262656827467708\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":269086.32246999943,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-12-01T12:39:04Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":200,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":0.001,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.0005,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.01,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.04,"lastTradePrice":0.001,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-12-01T12:38:34.177741Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"2261102","question":"Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?","conditionId":"0xfaa78bad74daeb6e5296ae5785df7805275d00e84c81dc37954446132595caed","slug":"ukraine-election-called-by-december-31-2026","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-12-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"17049.8744","startDate":"2026-05-14T15:50:14.726907Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 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Recent official statements and the absence of legislative movement to lift restrictions continue to anchor trader assessments of timelines for an official election call.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-05-31T17:16:17.923Z"}},{"id":"18571","ticker":"will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025","slug":"will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025","title":"Will any country leave NATO by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nA country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-02-13T23:08:41.618074Z","creationDate":"2025-02-13T23:08:41.618072Z","endDate":"2026-12-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":33017.57858,"volume":1136769.3485650008,"openInterest":114519.699639,"createdAt":"2025-02-13T22:27:42.74491Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:12:04.422558Z","competitive":0.8448712828039757,"volume24hr":27.027027,"volume1wk":6869.287935,"volume1mo":57883.80055,"volume1yr":436311.62319200014,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":33017.57858,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":26,"markets":[{"id":"523413","question":"Will any country leave NATO in 2025?","conditionId":"0x1b74c3efe140a09049e0eb6b6a2112e00fa4d199cdc718c1a58af1abf6d9e49d","slug":"will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-02-13T23:07:31.891Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 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Fact-checks consistently classify these as false or fabricated, highlighting the rapid spread of tabloid-style gossip around high-profile celebrity relationships. Traders monitoring this market should note the lack of verifiable indicators such as public statements, appearances, or credible reporting, which leaves outcomes highly uncertain and subject to sudden shifts only if an authentic announcement occurs.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-05-31T17:16:17.426Z"}},{"id":"22527","ticker":"mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-by","slug":"mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-by","title":"Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 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Recent months have featured repeated procedural hurdles, including successful discharge petitions bypassing leadership and multiple failed attempts to advance key measures such as FISA reauthorization and funding bills. June deadlines for surveillance authorities, a farm bill, and reconciliation efforts now loom, testing party unity further as members prioritize the 2026 midterms. These dynamics sustain trader focus on the risk of internal GOP pressure or a motion to vacate, though no formal challenge has materialized and Johnson has secured passage of several priorities through negotiation.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-05-31T13:47:31.193Z"}},{"id":"23784","ticker":"what-will-happen-before-gta-vi","slug":"what-will-happen-before-gta-vi","title":"What will happen before GTA VI?","description":"This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:25.262673Z","creationDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:25.262669Z","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":773848.06618,"volume":22506710.773267347,"openInterest":784257.926014,"sortBy":"price","createdAt":"2025-05-02T14:55:28.249386Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:15:50.839979Z","competitive":0.9999750006249843,"volume24hr":11291.421208000002,"volume1wk":243734.1366279994,"volume1mo":896884.7070440049,"volume1yr":19286124.346490756,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":773848.06618,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":880,"markets":[{"id":"540816","question":"Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?","conditionId":"0x9c1a953fe92c8357f1b646ba25d983aa83e90c525992db14fb726fa895cb5763","slug":"russia-ukraine-ceasefire-before-gta-vi-554","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:00.174Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if  if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nOnly ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.\n","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"1\", \"0\"]","volume":"1676301.745145051","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T15:03:10.397014Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-10T04:32:40.557657Z","closedTime":"2026-05-09 04:29:49+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire","groupItemThreshold":"1","questionID":"0x74dcd73f29877722e217723e10f2e8f9a888976f7cfc796234b75a3d3214d1c8","umaEndDate":"2026-05-09T04:29:49Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":1676301.745145051,"endDateIso":"2026-07-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"gameStartTime":"2026-05-08 20:00:00+00","clobTokenIds":"[\"8501497159083948713316135768103773293754490207922884688769443031624417212426\", \"2527312495175492857904889758552137141356236738032676480522356889996545113869\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":1676301.745145051,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:37Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":0,"rewardsMaxSpread":0,"spread":0.54,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.275,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.05,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.29,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.265,"oneYearPriceChange":-0.4,"lastTradePrice":0.54,"bestAsk":0.54,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:04.719613Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"general_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}},{"id":"540817","question":"New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?","conditionId":"0x1fad72fae204143ff1c3035e99e7c0f65ea8d5cd9bd1070987bd1a3316f772be","slug":"new-rhianna-album-before-gta-vi-926","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"18251.1947","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:10.582Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nOfficially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.\n\nRe-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.\n\nThe resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.52\", \"0.48\"]","volume":"783521.1053679992","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T15:04:43.762151Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:08:34.352306Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"New Rihanna Album","groupItemThreshold":"2","questionID":"0xb6fd5ea8c21f01471ad673950edd4a1645698946906abb27597e3f3de7bd70f1","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":783521.1053679992,"liquidityNum":18251.1947,"endDateIso":"2026-07-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":2749.8105430000005,"volume1wk":35949.31443900005,"volume1mo":78330.59864,"volume1yr":596095.6062300024,"clobTokenIds":"[\"98022490269692409998126496127597032490334070080325855126491859374983463996227\", \"53831553061883006530739877284105938919721408776239639687877978808906551086026\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":2749.8105430000005,"volume1wkClob":35949.31443900005,"volume1moClob":78330.59864,"volume1yrClob":596095.6062300024,"volumeClob":783521.1053679992,"liquidityClob":18251.1947,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:45Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9996001599360256,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":0,"rewardsMaxSpread":0,"spread":0.02,"oneDayPriceChange":0.01,"oneHourPriceChange":0.005,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.005,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.01,"oneYearPriceChange":-0.18,"lastTradePrice":0.53,"bestBid":0.51,"bestAsk":0.53,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:04.727292Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"general_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}},{"id":"540818","question":"New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?","conditionId":"0x50ddb9cd80d5c271664a2ebb7fcaed1d0a148d82c8e8d314d830f75a944c3dcc","slug":"new-playboi-carti-album-before-gta-vi-421","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"14462.6244","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:10.837Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nOfficially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.\n\nRe-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.\n\nThe resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.52\", \"0.48\"]","volume":"737661.0791119466","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T15:06:24.136443Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:08:36.96511Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"New Playboi Carti Album ","groupItemThreshold":"3","questionID":"0x6ec4702f0a5bb188f0dd498647641f2aa13a871953a7f15fa3413939ad68144c","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":737661.0791119466,"liquidityNum":14462.6244,"endDateIso":"2026-07-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":319.366768,"volume1wk":2250.235741,"volume1mo":5751.044833999999,"volume1yr":178442.2621560014,"clobTokenIds":"[\"88275040060084773376557187972215267513049848642895776801789297917961077894224\", \"94376205816022955542979635542279932967359915765455578534002478996104754801969\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":319.366768,"volume1wkClob":2250.235741,"volume1moClob":5751.044833999999,"volume1yrClob":178442.2621560014,"volumeClob":737661.0791119466,"liquidityClob":14462.6244,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:45Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9996001599360256,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"384670","conditionId":"0x50ddb9cd80d5c271664a2ebb7fcaed1d0a148d82c8e8d314d830f75a944c3dcc","assetAddress":"0xc011a7e12a19f7b1f670d46f03b03f3342e82dfb","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":0.001,"startDate":"2026-05-21","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":0,"rewardsMaxSpread":0,"spread":0.02,"oneDayPriceChange":0.005,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.005,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.01,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.005,"oneYearPriceChange":-0.06,"lastTradePrice":0.52,"bestBid":0.51,"bestAsk":0.53,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:04.718487Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"general_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}},{"id":"540819","question":"Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?","conditionId":"0x32b09f6390252b37d674501527e709016d55581b2c1e544bd4b8167f5f732f4c","slug":"will-jesus-christ-return-before-gta-vi-665","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"399625.2586","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:16.854Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nThe resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.485\", \"0.515\"]","volume":"11502708.32445075","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T15:08:16.157823Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:16:10.468565Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Jesus Christ returns","groupItemThreshold":"4","questionID":"0x9e84e9020884d3e603df981dc049bed477b64acfc623a739a7c51fed8de6cc5c","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":11502708.32445075,"liquidityNum":399625.2586,"endDateIso":"2026-07-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":3194.5759300000004,"volume1wk":38379.59204500001,"volume1mo":338192.0655180029,"volume1yr":11029554.067336902,"clobTokenIds":"[\"90435811253665578014957380826505992530054077692143838383981805324273750424057\", \"92388629082681805622801622703528982922543286352927708208755887536971583436902\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":3194.5759300000004,"volume1wkClob":38379.59204500001,"volume1moClob":338192.0655180029,"volume1yrClob":11029554.067336902,"volumeClob":11502708.32445075,"liquidityClob":399625.2586,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:47Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9997750506136119,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":0,"rewardsMaxSpread":0,"spread":0.01,"oneYearPriceChange":0.355,"lastTradePrice":0.48,"bestBid":0.48,"bestAsk":0.49,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:04.72195Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"general_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}},{"id":"540820","question":"Trump out as President before GTA VI?","conditionId":"0x84f8b70331323c2fba97d7ceaa9a35fb645a0770d0dbff169d07f24f376766e9","slug":"trump-out-as-president-before-gta-vi-846","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"29823.68","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:17.107Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nAn announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.505\", \"0.495\"]","volume":"660926.7970680076","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T15:15:30.618414Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:09:36.382545Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Trump out as President ","groupItemThreshold":"5","questionID":"0xedea9101297fbb648d3a2ac06b936f801919660e9514a7ff7fe6c17c40cd8fed","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":660926.7970680076,"liquidityNum":29823.68,"endDateIso":"2026-07-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":529.64294,"volume1wk":4406.859926999998,"volume1mo":32812.74422400003,"volume1yr":637296.8709770103,"clobTokenIds":"[\"108999723207897941876452935557011604067917389120996960199512481363958770540884\", \"64533579809297525579033609963634939501013332859992608996100633472507000251907\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":529.64294,"volume1wkClob":4406.859926999998,"volume1moClob":32812.74422400003,"volume1yrClob":637296.8709770103,"volumeClob":660926.7970680076,"liquidityClob":29823.68,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:49Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9999750006249843,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"350879","conditionId":"0x84f8b70331323c2fba97d7ceaa9a35fb645a0770d0dbff169d07f24f376766e9","assetAddress":"0xc011a7e12a19f7b1f670d46f03b03f3342e82dfb","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":0.001,"startDate":"2026-05-15","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":0,"rewardsMaxSpread":0,"spread":0.01,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.01,"oneYearPriceChange":0.36,"lastTradePrice":0.51,"bestBid":0.5,"bestAsk":0.51,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:04.726154Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"general_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}},{"id":"540843","question":"Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?","conditionId":"0x7b49b9bacb5f435bc10f3b100ff59e2fdd346f7f92a9001881bc9825a0af0f11","slug":"will-china-invades-taiwan-before-gta-vi-716-644","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"39984.9284","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:16.6Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nAn announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use\n","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.51\", \"0.49\"]","volume":"1848180.4302810624","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T15:22:02.679893Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:15:13.690196Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"China invades Taiwan ","groupItemThreshold":"7","questionID":"0x68ac8b4c60870980ae87c3a1da8730f46755c5e66c715032fc6c90b53f2ec4ec","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":1848180.4302810624,"liquidityNum":39984.9284,"endDateIso":"2026-07-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":1414,"volume1wk":8180.870260000001,"volume1mo":43074.226645000046,"volume1yr":1819956.4281830506,"clobTokenIds":"[\"21695138873211375451055566770107682325494206727818897067665810321709249824909\", \"17516427576383382756368467656206258206490015951115433065318503962238754362428\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":1414,"volume1wkClob":8180.870260000001,"volume1moClob":43074.226645000046,"volume1yrClob":1819956.4281830506,"volumeClob":1848180.4302810624,"liquidityClob":39984.9284,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:47Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9999000099990001,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":0,"rewardsMaxSpread":0,"spread":0.02,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.005,"oneMonthPriceChange":0.005,"oneYearPriceChange":0.32,"lastTradePrice":0.5,"bestBid":0.5,"bestAsk":0.52,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:04.723394Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"general_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}},{"id":"540844","question":"Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?","conditionId":"0xbb57ccf5853a85487bc3d83d04d669310d28c6c810758953b9d9b91d1aee89d2","slug":"will-bitcoin-hit-1m-before-gta-vi-872-424","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"199043.67254","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:17.361Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final \"High\" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nThe resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT \"High\" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.4925\", \"0.5075\"]","volume":"4442121.0187265305","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T15:24:45.04244Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:07:49.834158Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Bitcoin hits $1m","groupItemThreshold":"8","questionID":"0x7e4ff7b7fdfe7d1fbc6c0e2a7626ae4fc8d62f3848a5e601d511a51bdfa51f09","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":4442121.0187265305,"liquidityNum":199043.67254,"endDateIso":"2026-07-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":3025.3418580000002,"volume1wk":150618.51066799933,"volume1mo":370995.78626200196,"volume1yr":4354356.802783789,"clobTokenIds":"[\"105267568073659068217311993901927962476298440625043565106676088842803600775810\", \"91863162118308663069733924043159186005106558783397508844234610341221325526200\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":3025.3418580000002,"volume1wkClob":150618.51066799933,"volume1moClob":370995.78626200196,"volume1yrClob":4354356.802783789,"volumeClob":4442121.0187265305,"liquidityClob":199043.67254,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:49Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9999437531638845,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":0,"rewardsMaxSpread":0,"spread":0.001,"oneMonthPriceChange":0.004,"oneYearPriceChange":0.3675,"lastTradePrice":0.492,"bestBid":0.492,"bestAsk":0.493,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:04.724576Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"general_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}},{"id":"573647","question":"Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?","conditionId":"0x0ea8005efbc460378340a2f28a6d97b0d1d9d9d7fba4d16f529b8a415dca77a2","slug":"will-gpt-6-be-released","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"33330.2603","startDate":"2025-08-07T14:21:34.535Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-gpt-6-be-released-60JNME7AcX8z.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-gpt-6-be-released-60JNME7AcX8z.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nTo qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.53\", \"0.47\"]","volume":"656236.7226829983","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"0xF572b3B4BE2c67837A206F660cA7b51F0D7e585F","createdAt":"2025-08-07T14:03:41.38976Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:09:38.520576Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x157Ce2d672854c848c9b79C49a8Cc6cc89176a49","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"GPT-6 released","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0x9c4c41b0d3e1a61764250a0f6f53a26e073df17fe4d892699283fae2fa94eabb","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":656236.7226829983,"liquidityNum":33330.2603,"endDateIso":"2026-07-31","startDateIso":"2025-08-07","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":98.416658,"volume1wk":3389.5173910000003,"volume1mo":13529.937080000003,"volume1yr":656236.7226829999,"clobTokenIds":"[\"71552623345730992280501476931299615437386807576519105089437764117985071980606\", \"48266425622404486484896353767723266081505997963592758694068789352158715350186\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":98.416658,"volume1wkClob":3389.5173910000003,"volume1moClob":13529.937080000003,"volume1yrClob":656236.7226829999,"volumeClob":656236.7226829983,"liquidityClob":33330.2603,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-08-07T14:21:13Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9991008092716555,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"374592","conditionId":"0x0ea8005efbc460378340a2f28a6d97b0d1d9d9d7fba4d16f529b8a415dca77a2","assetAddress":"0xc011a7e12a19f7b1f670d46f03b03f3342e82dfb","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":0.001,"startDate":"2026-05-18","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":0,"rewardsMaxSpread":0,"spread":0.02,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.02,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.03,"lastTradePrice":0.54,"bestBid":0.52,"bestAsk":0.54,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-08-07T14:20:42.400176Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"general_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}},{"id":"1117522","question":"Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?","conditionId":"0xc829edf5ca6961e441c266546064b629c29a9313694689c0768db92810db62ff","slug":"will-drake-release-iceman-before-gta-vi-355","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2026-01-06T00:20:15.433Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Drake officially releases Iceman before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nIceman refers to the upcoming studio album by Drake of that title, which has been promoted through videos released with the titles “Iceman Episode (1-4)”, and the singles “What Did I Miss”, “Which One”, and “Dog House.”\n\nOfficially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.\n\nThe full Iceman studio album must be released in order to resolve this market. Further singles or Iceman video episodes will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.\n\nThe resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. A consensus of credible reporting that a released album is the Iceman project may be used if Drake releases the album under a different name.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"1\", \"0\"]","volume":"184867.9642920002","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-01-05T23:40:27.656833Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-21T21:05:23.45614Z","closedTime":"2026-05-15 09:40:31+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Drake releases Iceman","groupItemThreshold":"9","questionID":"0xa1c2c3e248f048170f13cfd40bbf64d1d62b01416239fbd00840f60a0fe6bda2","umaEndDate":"2026-05-15T09:40:31Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":184867.9642920002,"endDateIso":"2026-07-31","startDateIso":"2026-01-06","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":"[\"40694415003591202786878279287884766002429923551809555441858630935269489320071\", \"31737648224640860538361785861700072557227859645060732743904381890720199497279\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":184867.9642920002,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-01-06T00:19:53Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":2.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":0.0055,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.012,"oneMonthPriceChange":0.1095,"lastTradePrice":0.999,"bestBid":0.999,"bestAsk":1,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-01-06T00:19:21.850657Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"general_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}},{"id":"2325588","question":"Another pandemic before GTA VI?","conditionId":"0x71b1cc47f4cfe66e7aefa3705f1e55845a398e61788566463ee73a00f57ab59e","slug":"another-pandemic-before-gta-vi","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"38118.6899","startDate":"2026-05-21T21:10:08.125Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between market creation and Grand Theft Auto VI's officially release in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nThe resolution source for another pandemic's occurrence will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.505\", \"0.495\"]","volume":"14278.032027999998","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-05-21T21:05:21.441527Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:15:29.303312Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Another Pandemic","groupItemThreshold":"6","questionID":"0xa23844eaec64d4fdf101e21f16237e21013353ebbf55649d2f4160d4c64f41c4","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":14278.032027999998,"liquidityNum":38118.6899,"endDateIso":"2026-07-31","startDateIso":"2026-05-21","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":4,"volume1wk":629.758969,"volume1mo":14278.032028000001,"volume1yr":14278.032028000001,"clobTokenIds":"[\"73519690123669857152453405885723415686475855163989537762769966905300245435421\", \"62146921459129643983706019071835400268748047142556153578498180948195146798405\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":4,"volume1wkClob":629.758969,"volume1moClob":14278.032028000001,"volume1yrClob":14278.032028000001,"volumeClob":14278.032027999998,"liquidityClob":38118.6899,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-05-21T21:09:12Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9999750006249843,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"385793","conditionId":"0x71b1cc47f4cfe66e7aefa3705f1e55845a398e61788566463ee73a00f57ab59e","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":2,"startDate":"2026-05-21","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":200,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.01,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.005,"lastTradePrice":0.51,"bestBid":0.5,"bestAsk":0.51,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-05-21T21:08:06.760762Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"general_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}}],"tags":[{"id":"596","label":"Culture","slug":"pop-culture","forceShow":false,"publishedAt":"2023-11-29 18:40:13.013+00","createdAt":"2023-11-29T18:40:14.63Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:31:50.147585Z","requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"100215","label":"All","slug":"all","forceShow":false,"updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:23:54.340488Z","requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"2","label":"Politics","slug":"politics","forceShow":false,"publishedAt":"2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00","updatedBy":13,"createdAt":"2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:39:54.201881Z","forceHide":true,"requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"102109","label":"GTA VI","slug":"gta-vi","forceShow":false,"createdAt":"2025-05-06T18:59:54.453812Z","updatedAt":"2026-03-09T22:33:58.598479Z","isCarousel":false,"requiresTranslation":false}],"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","eventCreators":[{"id":"35","creatorName":"Complex","creatorHandle":"Complex","creatorUrl":"https://www.instagram.com/complex/?dub_id=uufP7v9XO0yJTJxj#","creatorImage":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1616533296770416655/AumWVpWu_400x400.jpg","createdAt":"2025-06-17T16:52:15.706551Z"}],"negRiskAugmented":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Rockstar Games has delayed Grand Theft Auto VI multiple times, most recently confirming a November 19, 2026 launch after shifting from a May target, heightening anticipation for the open-world title amid ongoing development at Rockstar North. Traders are monitoring this extended window for cultural and industry milestones, including potential music releases from major artists, AI advancements like GPT-6, and geopolitical shifts such as a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Take-Two Interactive’s upcoming earnings calls could signal further timeline adjustments or marketing ramps, while streaming metrics, trailer performance, and competitor game launches will shape sentiment around what resolves before the highly anticipated console debut.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-05-31T17:15:50.445Z"}},{"id":"23792","ticker":"gta-vi-released-before-june-2026","slug":"gta-vi-released-before-june-2026","title":"GTA VI released before June 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-05-02T17:00:29.269386Z","creationDate":"2025-05-02T17:00:29.269383Z","endDate":"2026-05-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gta-vi-released-before-june-2026-igCgZsDMejF1.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gta-vi-released-before-june-2026-igCgZsDMejF1.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":46670.07567,"volume":15241172.431636004,"openInterest":385590.48974,"createdAt":"2025-05-02T16:53:34.884115Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:15:48.927281Z","competitive":0.8006398713852111,"volume24hr":14894.754395999997,"volume1wk":366499.286432,"volume1mo":1330644.190350999,"volume1yr":15217683.912574003,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":46670.07567,"commentCount":35,"markets":[{"id":"540881","question":"GTA VI released before June 2026?","conditionId":"0xcccb7e7613a087c132b69cbf3a02bece3fdcb824c1da54ae79acc8d4a562d902","slug":"gta-vi-released-before-june-2026","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-05-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"46669.96589","startDate":"2025-05-02T17:00:26.233Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gta-vi-released-before-june-2026-igCgZsDMejF1.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gta-vi-released-before-june-2026-igCgZsDMejF1.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.001\", \"0.999\"]","volume":"15241172.541636003","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T16:53:35.469183Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:17:16.226866Z","new":false,"featured":true,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xd8d82bd063da64aea9f8a0c10f7e0b1510d15cefb2468bccc94c0572336095a2","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":15241172.541636003,"liquidityNum":46669.96589,"endDateIso":"2026-05-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":14894.864395999997,"volume1wk":366174.24893199996,"volume1mo":1330644.300350999,"volume1yr":15217684.022574004,"clobTokenIds":"[\"8441400852834915183759801017793514978104486628517653995211751018945988243154\", \"109289569086508934142323222102974769075074494425163878721602922903101062859033\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":14894.864395999997,"volume1wkClob":366174.24893199996,"volume1moClob":1330644.300350999,"volume1yrClob":15217684.022574004,"volumeClob":15241172.541636003,"liquidityClob":46669.96589,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T17:00:01Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8006398713852111,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":2.5,"spread":0.002,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.002,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.0085,"oneYearPriceChange":-0.719,"lastTradePrice":0.001,"bestAsk":0.002,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T16:59:24.952285Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"culture_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}}],"tags":[{"id":"596","label":"Culture","slug":"pop-culture","forceShow":false,"publishedAt":"2023-11-29 18:40:13.013+00","createdAt":"2023-11-29T18:40:14.63Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:31:50.147585Z","requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"102109","label":"GTA VI","slug":"gta-vi","forceShow":false,"createdAt":"2025-05-06T18:59:54.453812Z","updatedAt":"2026-03-09T22:33:58.598479Z","isCarousel":false,"requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"198","label":"Breaking News","slug":"breaking-news","forceShow":true,"publishedAt":"2023-11-02 21:34:44.43+00","updatedBy":15,"createdAt":"2023-11-02T21:34:44.447Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:31:30.073845Z","forceHide":false,"requiresTranslation":false}],"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":true,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"negRiskAugmented":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Rockstar Games and parent company Take-Two Interactive have locked in a November 19, 2026 console launch for Grand Theft Auto VI after two prior delays from the original Fall 2025 window, first to May 26 and then to the later date for additional polish. This official guidance, repeatedly reaffirmed in earnings calls and direct statements through May 2026, drives the near-certain market consensus against a pre-June release. Historical patterns of Rockstar prioritizing quality over rushed timelines further reinforce trader confidence. The only realistic upset would require an unprecedented early surprise drop, which remains highly improbable given the game's massive scope, current marketing timeline, and the studio's track record of sticking to announced windows.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-05-31T17:15:48.569Z"}},{"id":"24383","ticker":"harvey-weinstein-prison-time","slug":"harvey-weinstein-prison-time","title":"Harvey Weinstein prison time?","description":"This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-05-12T22:52:24.091151Z","creationDate":"2025-05-12T22:52:24.091148Z","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/harvey-weinstein-prison-time-C0vjbSkDw4Cy.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/harvey-weinstein-prison-time-C0vjbSkDw4Cy.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":12847.66448,"volume":1059909.8000130015,"openInterest":61923.981866999995,"createdAt":"2025-05-12T22:26:22.013988Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:16:36.712089Z","competitive":0.9520180521663052,"volume24hr":2538.070707,"volume1wk":16153.639770999996,"volume1mo":166771.31699600004,"volume1yr":1049088.539413,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":12847.66448,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0xaa0edfa656a0e70bf8c63f09438cd70979fef8e31fcc62d80840b5a375a55400","commentCount":22,"markets":[{"id":"544092","question":"Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?","conditionId":"0xf398b0e5016eeaee9b0885ed84012b6dc91269ac10d3b59d60722859c2e30b2f","slug":"will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-no-prison-time","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"1158.54749","startDate":"2025-05-12T22:50:41.123Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/harvey-weinstein-prison-time-C0vjbSkDw4Cy.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/harvey-weinstein-prison-time-C0vjbSkDw4Cy.jpg","description":"This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. 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This competitive positioning against Apple and others in the AI gadget space, alongside broader moves like U.S.-focused manufacturing plans, shapes trader views on whether any product meets near-term resolution thresholds.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-05-31T17:17:16.482Z"}},{"id":"25036","ticker":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by","title":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?","description":"This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-05-22T21:22:27.724651Z","creationDate":"2025-05-22T21:22:27.724648Z","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":83022.39515,"volume":6345488.260530006,"openInterest":362306.156423,"createdAt":"2025-05-22T21:05:50.676357Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:16:07.744629Z","competitive":0.9858044164037855,"volume24hr":18829.335185999997,"volume1wk":361458.988531,"volume1mo":2107685.8382719997,"volume1yr":5155866.436942,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":83022.39515,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":439,"markets":[{"id":"546805","question":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?","conditionId":"0x5fa63a3f820801f6bab4f95a9fc4453c004ab1881b6be2c2cb26c812f7efb997","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-august-31","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-08-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-05-22T21:21:03.317115Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by August 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg\n\nTrain Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"820505.02216","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-22T21:06:55.225812Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T22:18:30.114772Z","closedTime":"2025-09-01 06:28:52+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"August 31","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0x4ea006a4454c2dc79c9738e820ff965175fc2c8845d358a0384a03c2533a5bcf","umaEndDate":"2025-09-01T06:28:52Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":820505.02216,"endDateIso":"2025-08-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-22","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":53283.02003999999,"volume1mo":472014.95997800014,"volume1yr":820505.0221599991,"clobTokenIds":"[\"52764520351434119047034479962184961804730800614485355573059721230866709386316\", \"50939339576833016698573110949129257192038949921900247130555235008970489450900\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":53283.02003999999,"volume1moClob":472014.95997800014,"volume1yrClob":820505.0221599991,"volumeClob":820505.02216,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-22T21:20:34Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.0015,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.0145,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.051,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-22T21:19:57.13184Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"546806","question":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?","conditionId":"0x1df6862b69a47872e75864cac21b9ae9ea0cb552884d38aea9170c5fe5321bc6","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-december-31-266-839-138","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-05-22T21:21:03.57Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg\n\nTrain Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"1307057.244169","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-22T21:11:26.543541Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T22:18:30.058462Z","closedTime":"2026-01-01 09:14:39+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":" December 31","groupItemThreshold":"4","questionID":"0x11c7ebe54b3bc4dd87a0adb979a2532f3cb96fa870d41c0c105892f760ea3fde","umaEndDate":"2026-01-01T09:14:39Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":1307057.244169,"endDateIso":"2025-12-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-22","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":47604.17484199999,"volume1mo":249119.967711,"volume1yr":1307057.2441690012,"clobTokenIds":"[\"58798923314292213706108095296759377158063350000880445982478753522386393910973\", \"16759809660065614657316136762877254422251604138946045908613588571784925013992\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":47604.17484199999,"volume1moClob":249119.967711,"volume1yrClob":1307057.2441690012,"volumeClob":1307057.244169,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-22T21:20:36Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.0005,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.018,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.2175,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-22T21:19:57.12882Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"560560","question":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?","conditionId":"0x19848149723bbd00545b98f45aa239864d8afd2194fec522af4dd2cb222f9766","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-october-31-788","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-10-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-07-07T04:01:13.354Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by October 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg\n\nTrain Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"701057.717926","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"0x39A73aAeed8871C1D36016eAc519Aa625726e59F","createdAt":"2025-07-07T03:32:12.542705Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T22:18:30.015004Z","closedTime":"2025-11-01 06:29:10+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x157Ce2d672854c848c9b79C49a8Cc6cc89176a49","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"October 31","groupItemThreshold":"2","questionID":"0xb33562b43a7fb9bc0621bb509adbf1629e1ab5268c0381f420843f3ec6139a01","umaEndDate":"2025-11-01T06:29:10Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":701057.717926,"endDateIso":"2025-10-31","startDateIso":"2025-07-07","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":41283.20729600001,"volume1mo":230393.0779559998,"volume1yr":701057.7179259998,"clobTokenIds":"[\"57509386515638203409676353122070128915263312270689905975542272900147217912507\", \"56204317272716953593028494650753841280461771658055690484625859869098941695564\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":41283.20729600001,"volume1moClob":230393.0779559998,"volume1yrClob":701057.7179259998,"volumeClob":701057.717926,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-07-07T04:00:50Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.002,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.0275,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.0645,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-07-07T04:00:12.638623Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"575194","question":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?","conditionId":"0x8f7c60f27f0b885531538bad8e3cf66f74e2ecdb084f9f3662043d69127bfc8c","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-september-30-111","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-08-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-08-12T17:13:05.395865Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg\n\nTrain Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"163807.773962","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"0x00A284A28628922529c2088924E5Ad0A739dA66d","createdAt":"2025-08-12T17:00:50.147184Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T22:18:30.121552Z","closedTime":"2025-10-01 06:14:45+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x157Ce2d672854c848c9b79C49a8Cc6cc89176a49","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"September 30","groupItemThreshold":"1","questionID":"0xe87c96013e0837dc32d6962f3ef0c59dba229da671ac9be20bc41e758e03617c","umaEndDate":"2025-10-01T06:14:45Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":163807.773962,"endDateIso":"2025-08-31","startDateIso":"2025-08-12","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":13236.180385,"volume1mo":99637.15513099995,"volume1yr":163807.77396199995,"clobTokenIds":"[\"114381589136409215143279241982285449157407779193398667940575043679964367420662\", \"7226328177805702284817831455077713195078779803101002290052645015901358643638\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":13236.180385,"volume1moClob":99637.15513099995,"volume1yrClob":163807.77396199995,"volumeClob":163807.773962,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-08-12T17:12:45Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"36244","conditionId":"0x8f7c60f27f0b885531538bad8e3cf66f74e2ecdb084f9f3662043d69127bfc8c","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":5,"startDate":"2025-09-29","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.008,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.1645,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-08-12T17:12:15.382866Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"642526","question":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?","conditionId":"0xd6b3dba9eefc9b556c3bb0f140e7d530759e70ed1283caeb162c31df477c1e1a","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-november-30","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-10-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-10-21T19:29:11.125714Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by November 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg\n\nTrain Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"229509.128995","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-10-21T13:45:37.581566Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T22:18:30.062849Z","closedTime":"2025-12-01 07:33:40+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"November 30","groupItemThreshold":"3","questionID":"0x8f07e517a304c886955497ce5e7a791f5dd80ec5484c0f1ef59e5166d8401f98","umaEndDate":"2025-12-01T07:33:40Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":229509.128995,"endDateIso":"2025-10-31","startDateIso":"2025-10-21","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":21704.066098,"volume1mo":166077.9794079999,"volume1yr":229509.1289949998,"clobTokenIds":"[\"26340281514116361739177694696142465392610507254614159065410861117730143622187\", \"77445434236199640828285894610915168465113925137412738738677921101339333881186\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":21704.066098,"volume1moClob":166077.9794079999,"volume1yrClob":229509.1289949998,"volumeClob":229509.128995,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-10-21T19:28:49Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"39140","conditionId":"0xd6b3dba9eefc9b556c3bb0f140e7d530759e70ed1283caeb162c31df477c1e1a","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":5,"startDate":"2025-10-21","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":0.004,"oneHourPriceChange":0.0035,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.031,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.2705,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-10-21T19:28:22.128044Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"898678","question":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?","conditionId":"0xa65fe234ac3808801290874c631e55bcfee30e437c78239808729a89d9f2de22","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-january-31","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-03-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-12-09T00:38:09.352Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg\n\nTrain Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"496558.346575","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-12-09T00:01:55.362849Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T22:18:30.076803Z","closedTime":"2026-02-01 08:00:46+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"January 31, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"5","questionID":"0xcae03d68faf92abe5d7b9f83c772caf7ee3a4c5de9b36898b61e0c4e58149984","umaEndDate":"2026-02-01T08:00:46Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":496558.346575,"endDateIso":"2026-03-31","startDateIso":"2025-12-09","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":67052.53479200003,"volume1mo":379685.8219830001,"volume1yr":496558.3465750002,"clobTokenIds":"[\"37281046158137671889895383499164526727881692321679587626659940834369685019496\", \"11132544244839265378732084165256379227175677028258955804895976429843086532411\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":67052.53479200003,"volume1moClob":379685.8219830001,"volume1yrClob":496558.3465750002,"volumeClob":496558.346575,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-12-09T00:37:47Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.003,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.0945,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.2195,"lastTradePrice":0.001,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-12-09T00:37:17.372882Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"677361","question":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?","conditionId":"0x6987d084de71031819f82051ea62b29a354628c3e4a22076a2acc197c776080a","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-march-31-872-578","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-03-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-11-13T16:23:45.868Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by March 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg\n\nTrain Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"965800.9519230045","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-11-11T22:26:22.455602Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T22:18:29.992716Z","closedTime":"2026-04-01 06:22:17+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"March 31, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"7","questionID":"0x960b8fe78b127652ed8e5b0f895137f7d30226dea710d57a1313d3d93a1d5cb0","umaEndDate":"2026-04-01T06:22:17Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":965800.9519230045,"endDateIso":"2026-03-31","startDateIso":"2025-11-13","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":"[\"94521268801533640253484626268475643884882213091508756864952897781498391313602\", \"63761293627321054794056701530662561252253979399794304476663814039986928052742\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":965800.9519230045,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-11-13T16:23:24Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":0.03,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.045,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.48,"lastTradePrice":0.001,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-11-13T16:22:55.343944Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"677366","question":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?","conditionId":"0x7e50b661a2bedc670bcf32fc9ece12616f6fc4fba5dbe8526292bf3447374009","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-december-31-2026-936-942-271-276-578-687","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-12-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"50817.5151","startDate":"2025-11-13T16:24:05.994Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg\n\nTrain Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.755\", \"0.245\"]","volume":"495545.6310630008","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-11-11T22:27:09.238172Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:09:03.02622Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"December 31, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"11","questionID":"0xb4756d4c88a97988c3aa438fcec0b0b77634e7cfc85f4cbfe3db83572c976aae","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":495545.6310630008,"liquidityNum":50817.5151,"endDateIso":"2026-12-31","startDateIso":"2025-11-13","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":1688.031503,"volume1wk":21839.867828,"volume1mo":126234.512995,"volume1yr":495545.6310630007,"clobTokenIds":"[\"83552904656813968939383082097054433404653657244784709614448703928529504455469\", \"47029152085101973226255505664149277121974669906212969183902148537312535402801\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":1688.031503,"volume1wkClob":21839.867828,"volume1moClob":126234.512995,"volume1yrClob":495545.6310630007,"volumeClob":495545.6310630008,"liquidityClob":50817.5151,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-11-13T16:23:44Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.938945095185559,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"291707","conditionId":"0x7e50b661a2bedc670bcf32fc9ece12616f6fc4fba5dbe8526292bf3447374009","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":5,"startDate":"2026-04-29","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":40,"rewardsMaxSpread":5.5,"spread":0.01,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.02,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.03,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.03,"lastTradePrice":0.75,"bestBid":0.75,"bestAsk":0.76,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-11-13T16:23:15.444123Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"956942","question":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?","conditionId":"0x5f33f46fa571836f090ef8f3e62caee237f8f73c36a711e757a6f71bf8ef9c6a","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-february-28","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-03-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-12-17T20:53:32.04Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by February 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg\n\nTrain Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"486173.461815","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-12-17T20:51:51.563238Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T22:18:30.001394Z","closedTime":"2026-03-01 07:26:23+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"February 28, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"6","questionID":"0xbe5e1a505622dc16b022e647aaf4d449fac6135286abd159a0e761efdf2faebe","umaEndDate":"2026-03-01T07:26:23Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":486173.461815,"endDateIso":"2026-03-31","startDateIso":"2025-12-17","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":38520.792045,"volume1mo":176247.5126260001,"volume1yr":486173.4618150009,"clobTokenIds":"[\"3464795463763108108909057219187376740735691886447931192725079515654033695019\", \"96229871085374132303116376471322311695842738677806841162553339355812305824040\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":38520.792045,"volume1moClob":176247.5126260001,"volume1yrClob":486173.4618150009,"volumeClob":486173.461815,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-12-17T20:53:09Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.0005,"oneHourPriceChange":0.0005,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.018,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.3315,"lastTradePrice":0.001,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-12-17T20:52:40.03807Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"1397260","question":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?","conditionId":"0xb23587fc1e319cdf9aaa12c503f6b2149c820c3d64ded3c98b4ff6719cac78fe","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-june-30-382-954-769","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-06-30T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"8959.51871","startDate":"2026-02-19T12:24:20.546Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg\n\nTrain Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.312\", \"0.688\"]","volume":"361931.87695500074","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-02-19T12:19:32.163641Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:08:09.598244Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"June 30, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"10","questionID":"0x9477316f1c03d7b60a44c6de7ea6c5d2d6fedbaf947e1f8ae451e840be053f5a","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":361931.87695500074,"liquidityNum":8959.51871,"endDateIso":"2026-06-30","startDateIso":"2026-02-19","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":11613.384356999997,"volume1wk":29639.33850199999,"volume1mo":125130.61360899976,"volume1yr":361931.87695499865,"clobTokenIds":"[\"92557339599379991257792137259949406096653890374419429974555855496093508422916\", \"43321630833125241017427912676100747595457556487829359498141771278458547970943\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":11613.384356999997,"volume1wkClob":29639.33850199999,"volume1moClob":125130.61360899976,"volume1yrClob":361931.87695499865,"volumeClob":361931.87695500074,"liquidityClob":8959.51871,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-02-19T12:23:14Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9658625538951305,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"277501","conditionId":"0xb23587fc1e319cdf9aaa12c503f6b2149c820c3d64ded3c98b4ff6719cac78fe","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":5,"startDate":"2026-04-29","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":40,"rewardsMaxSpread":5.5,"spread":0.002,"oneDayPriceChange":0.0325,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.0035,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.164,"oneMonthPriceChange":0.0045,"lastTradePrice":0.313,"bestBid":0.311,"bestAsk":0.313,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-02-19T12:21:59.737659Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"1397301","question":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?","conditionId":"0x19f4555bdaf83d0d433f62013c005a73de4787ed737550f81a6d265fa28d976c","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-april-30","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-04-30T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2026-02-19T12:52:38.015Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by April 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg\n\nTrain Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"223820.87166499996","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-02-19T12:49:37.685922Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-02T06:14:04.117098Z","closedTime":"2026-05-01 06:55:42+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"April 30, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"8","questionID":"0xe399f5f86f0a33219c28e6b780ebb419c8dc2392b48ceeeed825884d53617fc4","umaEndDate":"2026-05-01T06:55:42Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":223820.87166499996,"endDateIso":"2026-04-30","startDateIso":"2026-02-19","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":"[\"91598277451888833943457869299081344513189737907823485218592748863763321112699\", \"53831658761992660262271167425488866803302305236549476786294052519241195037228\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":223820.87166499996,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-02-19T12:51:32Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":5.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.01,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.0025,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.067,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.1795,"lastTradePrice":0.009,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-02-19T12:50:20.355087Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"2047653","question":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?","conditionId":"0xc13c31b0e5d48e978cc5c66318659ecab10e9882543e87a5f4eea5a5f889bdc2","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-may-31","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-05-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"4475.24494","startDate":"2026-04-21T22:11:39.521371Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg\n\nTrain Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.0155\", \"0.9845\"]","volume":"67545.51584900002","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-04-21T22:07:27.001781Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:16:59.878889Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"May 31, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"9","questionID":"0x735290e65b0f6e19ec03b2db9e34cf0f4d9a569a76145023663481386f85b4cb","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":67545.51584900002,"liquidityNum":4475.24494,"endDateIso":"2026-05-31","startDateIso":"2026-04-21","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":4898.243854,"volume1wk":14366.164802999998,"volume1mo":56969.519402000005,"volume1yr":67545.515849,"clobTokenIds":"[\"29809011696982220732063546542308622474802854943333188643218359463829709235487\", \"25648885101397690756283800036871749844131890020935661811158571426964687277506\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":4898.243854,"volume1wkClob":14366.164802999998,"volume1moClob":56969.519402000005,"volume1yrClob":67545.515849,"volumeClob":67545.51584900002,"liquidityClob":4475.24494,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-04-21T22:10:36Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8098869377587715,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"291697","conditionId":"0xc13c31b0e5d48e978cc5c66318659ecab10e9882543e87a5f4eea5a5f889bdc2","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":3,"startDate":"2026-04-29","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":40,"rewardsMaxSpread":5.5,"spread":0.025,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.009,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.0005,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.008,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.1345,"lastTradePrice":0.01,"bestBid":0.003,"bestAsk":0.028,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-04-21T22:09:22.720893Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"2159718","question":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?","conditionId":"0x271e1d96693db79b42a277dc5f64b61a72bc1a0fad85586fd28c7d89b9b96231","slug":"will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-september-30","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-09-30T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"18070.1456","startDate":"2026-05-04T20:45:49.43525Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-38lHU3PVeM7C.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg\n\nTrain Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.62\", \"0.38\"]","volume":"26174.717473000004","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-05-04T20:42:57.818734Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:13:50.106849Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"September 30, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"11","questionID":"0x6bbdd2110eb729279f3bc5a99ae1489aef85cfcd27e31c4f6cacb3f5c492f3fd","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":26174.717473000004,"liquidityNum":18070.1456,"endDateIso":"2026-09-30","startDateIso":"2026-05-04","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":607.655472,"volume1wk":12462.931899999998,"volume1mo":26174.717473000008,"volume1yr":26174.717473000008,"clobTokenIds":"[\"55628874182306186050631811887515133881663823417535899038376461448048315313936\", \"63712527751974257201038440220031691363508120012860375402898424160848105925111\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":607.655472,"volume1wkClob":12462.931899999998,"volume1moClob":26174.717473000008,"volume1yrClob":26174.717473000008,"volumeClob":26174.717473000004,"liquidityClob":18070.1456,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-05-04T20:44:46Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9858044164037855,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"309744","conditionId":"0x271e1d96693db79b42a277dc5f64b61a72bc1a0fad85586fd28c7d89b9b96231","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":5,"startDate":"2026-05-04","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":40,"rewardsMaxSpread":5.5,"spread":0.02,"oneHourPriceChange":0.005,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.055,"lastTradePrice":0.61,"bestBid":0.61,"bestAsk":0.63,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-05-04T20:43:27.503491Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null}],"tags":[{"id":"96","label":"Ukraine","slug":"ukraine","forceShow":false,"publishedAt":"2023-11-02 21:18:49.922+00","updatedBy":15,"createdAt":"2023-11-02T21:18:49.94Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T21:11:46.161003Z","requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"2","label":"Politics","slug":"politics","forceShow":false,"publishedAt":"2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00","updatedBy":13,"createdAt":"2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:39:54.201881Z","forceHide":true,"requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"101970","label":"World","slug":"world","forceShow":false,"createdAt":"2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T17:18:59.135061Z","requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"100265","label":"Geopolitics","slug":"geopolitics","forceShow":true,"createdAt":"2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:49:04.209055Z","requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"102475","label":"Russia Capture","slug":"russia-capture","forceShow":false,"createdAt":"2025-08-07T21:17:05.925606Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T21:11:46.156489Z","isCarousel":false,"requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"102486","label":"Ukraine Map","slug":"ukraine-map","forceShow":false,"createdAt":"2025-08-12T21:44:08.906337Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:39:54.187435Z","isCarousel":false,"requiresTranslation":false}],"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"estimateValue":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Russian forces have sustained incremental pressure on Kostyantynivka through small-group infiltrations and drone-supported assaults in the Donetsk Oblast sector, reaching the immediate outskirts by early May 2026 without securing permanent urban footholds. As of late May, Ukrainian units conducted local advances in western Kostyantynivka and southern Illinivka while striking Russian positions, maintaining control over key infrastructure such as the central railroad station. Broader Russian offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area continue at a measured pace amid heavy use of artillery, glide bombs, and fiber-optic drones, consistent with the slower advance rates observed across Donetsk since the start of 2026. Ukrainian counteractions and fortifications remain the primary factors limiting territorial gains in this priority axis.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-05-31T17:16:07.369Z"}},{"id":"25391","ticker":"spain-snap-election-called-by","slug":"spain-snap-election-called-by","title":"Spain snap election called by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-05-28T18:38:29.141223Z","creationDate":"2025-05-28T18:38:29.14122Z","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spain-snap-election-called-in-2025-YPLnfYBaLnXB.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spain-snap-election-called-in-2025-YPLnfYBaLnXB.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":15093.30023,"volume":167920.19290599992,"openInterest":21943.751132,"createdAt":"2025-05-28T17:17:11.280439Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:17:24.875708Z","competitive":0.8509608092126719,"volume24hr":41.02,"volume1wk":11547.813517999999,"volume1mo":36354.239668,"volume1yr":167920.19290599992,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":15093.30023,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":0,"markets":[{"id":"547957","question":"Spain snap election called in 2025?","conditionId":"0x90146e4df214d10dc20b7f60ff0ce966bfa09546978a4a4059d06f3cd6ddf577","slug":"spain-snap-election-called-in-2025","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-05-28T18:38:02.886Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spain-snap-election-called-in-2025-YPLnfYBaLnXB.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spain-snap-election-called-in-2025-YPLnfYBaLnXB.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"93498.302024","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-28T17:17:12.888354Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-28T13:33:33.33929Z","closedTime":"2026-01-01 10:17:17+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"December 31, 2025","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xcdb4dcef247a51f3d1853304a7a11c2b42dffc51ba1056c56d4f49a685ce7fb0","umaEndDate":"2026-01-01T10:17:17Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":93498.302024,"endDateIso":"2025-12-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-28","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":4513.470999999999,"volume1mo":13695.586521000001,"volume1yr":93498.30202399998,"clobTokenIds":"[\"6902174611736159145776657108337759402988986526678504248271295670198397738390\", \"10360574034610259365825582633190111659383248210003248977260045000073129477814\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":4513.470999999999,"volume1moClob":13695.586521000001,"volume1yrClob":93498.30202399998,"volumeClob":93498.302024,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-28T18:37:38Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":200,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.002,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.007,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.0505,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-28T18:36:17.419964Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"politics_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.04,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}},{"id":"644510","question":"Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?","conditionId":"0xb935ba8bc67b99825f2d7e4759d5d619f9c2beea0b799cc6f444d48c8cdf6149","slug":"spain-snap-election-called-by-june-30-2026","resolutionSource":"","liquidity":"15012.18183","startDate":"2025-10-22T15:44:39.980441Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spain-snap-election-called-in-2025-YPLnfYBaLnXB.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spain-snap-election-called-in-2025-YPLnfYBaLnXB.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between October 21, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.0815\", \"0.9185\"]","volume":"74421.89088199992","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-10-22T15:42:59.06638Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:08:38.416993Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"June 30, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"1","questionID":"0x281e67a95c130130a06a7047bbb59aaaf24733887d36ddc5cf436ad7dc6c4d0e","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":74421.89088199992,"liquidityNum":15012.18183,"startDateIso":"2025-10-22","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":37.58,"volume1wk":7034.3425179999995,"volume1mo":22658.653146999997,"volume1yr":74421.89088199996,"clobTokenIds":"[\"22727676348515372003751667928661129938953357934816532759741382381194930135311\", \"113257680533063586788985346494216055424581457988687762525815116425152066513696\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":37.58,"volume1wkClob":7034.3425179999995,"volume1moClob":22658.653146999997,"volume1yrClob":74421.89088199996,"volumeClob":74421.89088199992,"liquidityClob":15012.18183,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-10-22T15:44:18Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8509608092126719,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"90084","conditionId":"0xb935ba8bc67b99825f2d7e4759d5d619f9c2beea0b799cc6f444d48c8cdf6149","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":5,"startDate":"2026-03-02","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.029,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.03,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.0015,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.024,"oneMonthPriceChange":0.0065,"lastTradePrice":0.1,"bestBid":0.067,"bestAsk":0.096,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-10-22T15:43:50.11555Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"politics_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.04,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}}],"series":[{"id":"11293","ticker":"spain-snap-election","slug":"spain-snap-election","title":"Spain Snap Election","seriesType":"single","recurrence":"annual","image":"","icon":"","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"createdAt":"2026-03-05T16:06:40.345104Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-31T17:12:23.112688Z","volume24hr":121.02,"volume":193357.89776899992,"liquidity":17802.08303,"commentCount":45,"requiresTranslation":false}],"tags":[{"id":"366","label":"world affairs","slug":"world-affairs","publishedAt":"2023-11-02 22:05:44.425+00","createdAt":"2023-11-02T22:05:44.48Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:47:56.524437Z","requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"101970","label":"World","slug":"world","forceShow":false,"createdAt":"2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T17:18:59.135061Z","requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"144","label":"Elections","slug":"elections","forceShow":false,"publishedAt":"2023-11-02 21:24:31.008+00","updatedBy":13,"createdAt":"2023-11-02T21:24:31.198Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T17:22:31.696566Z","forceHide":true,"requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"2","label":"Politics","slug":"politics","forceShow":false,"publishedAt":"2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00","updatedBy":13,"createdAt":"2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:39:54.201881Z","forceHide":true,"requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"1597","label":"Global Elections","slug":"global-elections","forceShow":true,"publishedAt":"2024-03-07 20:44:01.258+00","createdBy":15,"updatedBy":15,"createdAt":"2024-03-07T20:41:56.773Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T21:08:23.096987Z","requiresTranslation":false}],"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"seriesSlug":"spain-snap-election","gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"estimateValue":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Recent corruption investigations, including a police raid on the PSOE headquarters in late May 2026, have intensified opposition calls for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to dissolve parliament and trigger a snap general election before the scheduled 2027 vote. Sánchez has repeatedly rejected these demands, citing economic stability and coalition priorities, while regional results in Andalusia and elsewhere show sustained gains for the conservative People’s Party and declining Socialist support. Parliamentary fragility, including reliance on regional parties like Junts and the absence of an updated state budget, adds uncertainty. Any escalation in legal proceedings or further electoral setbacks could alter the timeline for early dissolution of the Cortes Generales.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-05-31T17:17:24.520Z"}},{"id":"25410","ticker":"us-x-russia-military-clash-by","slug":"us-x-russia-military-clash-by","title":"US x Russia military clash by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 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Romanian officials responded by condemning the incursion, closing the Russian consulate, and weighing NATO Article 4 consultations, while a senior Russian diplomat publicly warned of mounting risks of head-on clash with NATO. US officials at the UN condemned Russia's latest missile and drone attacks on Kyiv as dangerous escalation, even as Trump administration-mediated ceasefire efforts collapsed amid renewed bombardments. US intelligence assessments have sharpened focus on both inadvertent and deliberate escalation paths from the Ukraine conflict, though no verified direct engagements between American and Russian forces have occurred.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-05-31T17:01:24.027Z"}}]