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Filing an S-1 or announcing IPO intentions alone does not qualify.\n\nIf Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Kraken and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Kraken; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.505\", \"0.495\"]","volume":"62.97625","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-08-25T20:20:06.769357Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-28T13:52:57.114478Z","new":false,"featured":false,"archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"June 30, 2027","groupItemThreshold":"2","questionID":"0xfd12dfacad2ef5a03b5f2641339e312bd461a1f5f921b77bdad4b35f64727535","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":62.97625,"liquidityNum":10.404,"endDateIso":"2027-07-01","startDateIso":"2026-08-25","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":"[\"99253304599951701801764273015201484991796200069427221361914092452921572867497\", \"7127391717356844418351322120166240591225990691848308827043119339251960725455\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":62.97625,"liquidityClob":10.404,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-25T20:20:18Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.0699982500437489,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"1620043","conditionId":"0xcee7afac20d34bfca0ddafe231f402b105a5ffbaf841fa9c12b1eee4b9031874","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":5,"startDate":"2026-08-26","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.93,"bestBid":0.04,"bestAsk":0.97,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-25T20:20:08.000269Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"finance_prices_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.04,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25},"version":"v1"},{"id":"3886790","question":"Kraken IPO by March 31, 2027?","conditionId":"0xcba52062bde65f42263306c9dcb935f6be724462ef8df7e2f7528ca7c9a3b4ee","slug":"kraken-ipo-by-march-31-2027","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2027-04-01T04:00:00Z","liquidity":"10.8938","startDate":"2026-08-25T20:20:17Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-kraken-ipo-in-2024--_GT-GzKWtUW.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-kraken-ipo-in-2024--_GT-GzKWtUW.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kraken shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. 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Recent local contests and by-election patterns show continued volatility for the governing party, while historical precedent favors running closer to the five-year limit unless conditions sharply improve. Any shift would likely hinge on stronger economic data or favorable national polls that could prompt Burnham to seek a fresh mandate before the automatic deadline.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-08-28T13:32:21.046Z"},"version":"v1"},{"id":"17526","ticker":"china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31","slug":"china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31","title":"China x India military clash by...?","description":"This is a market on the likelihood of a military clash between China and India occurring by December 31.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-01-30T21:29:15.866418Z","creationDate":"2025-01-30T21:29:15.866415Z","endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":16911.8353,"volume":330240.39272199996,"openInterest":22184.322193,"createdAt":"2025-01-30T19:15:09.756401Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-28T13:53:20.156649Z","competitive":0.8470089994706194,"volume24hr":6.45,"volume1wk":15872.286814,"volume1mo":39079.627290000004,"volume1yr":330292.66272199963,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":16911.8353,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":15,"markets":[{"id":"521028","question":"China x India military clash by June 30?","conditionId":"0x69eecc28e594a1c524ea95f095d6e86eb1bfd8a67277eda3010413e9edf68e03","slug":"china-x-india-military-clash-by-june-30","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-07-01T03:59:00Z","startDate":"2025-01-30T21:29:01.73Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 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Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"37693.17445","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-01-30T19:15:10.907371Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-21T18:19:30.76474Z","closedTime":"2025-07-01 22:05:08.339341+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"June 30","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xaaee7c59ddcc8acf258c7524aab4bb8737c76d3bd12e603d572ac881f7e79bbb","umaEndDate":"2025-07-01 22:05:08.339341+00","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":37693.17445,"endDateIso":"2025-07-01","startDateIso":"2025-01-30","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":11207.9985,"volume1mo":14173.342340000005,"volume1yr":37693.174450000006,"gameStartTime":"2025-09-10 02:17:00+00","clobTokenIds":"[\"82814855654672504061247670166274349069234747344604118638495723199148512283270\", \"28181983066814192341972022528872656900287488784777109397388022150121214816984\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":11207.9985,"volume1moClob":14173.342340000005,"volume1yrClob":37693.174450000006,"volumeClob":37693.17445,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-01-30T21:27:50Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.0015,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.0075,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.0175,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null,"version":"v1"},{"id":"521029","question":"China x India military clash by December 31?","conditionId":"0x689a77ca28cf59efae262fd37d07aa787194d52b13bbe009a223de15bf5c62af","slug":"china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-01-01T04:59:00Z","startDate":"2025-01-30T21:29:11.808Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 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Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"73185.754279","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-01-30T19:15:12.055523Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-21T18:19:30.763956Z","closedTime":"2026-01-01 09:34:37+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"December 31","groupItemThreshold":"1","questionID":"0x21a57e5bd440a2fa423cdaeffd795ec4dc3a6a7ed297f9fc630f59fcbabfd1fd","umaEndDate":"2026-01-01T09:34:37Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":73185.754279,"endDateIso":"2026-01-01","startDateIso":"2025-01-30","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":1986.7765,"volume1mo":8221.565354,"volume1yr":73185.75427899958,"gameStartTime":"2025-09-10 02:17:00+00","clobTokenIds":"[\"62499647704758013801224496519154801919449219197687180369505612744147504118777\", \"89667254973027475163940771416019167537897714895546880163448338769528535684137\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":1986.7765,"volume1moClob":8221.565354,"volume1yrClob":73185.75427899958,"volumeClob":73185.754279,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-01-30T21:28:00Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.0015,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.003,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.0215,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null,"version":"v1"},{"id":"677404","question":"China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?","conditionId":"0x6e6851f2698629795fa06869d961c986221a80cedcba10fbaf0ed220607cdada","slug":"china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-2026","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","liquidity":"16911.8353","startDate":"2025-11-13T23:10:40.603235Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-eggJM4CWN6Un.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 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These steps build on phased disengagements from the 2020 Galwan standoff and prior rounds of Special Representatives talks, amid ongoing differing perceptions of the LAC that have produced localized incidents and diplomatic friction, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh. Both sides also agreed to resume border trade, pilgrimages, and hydrological data sharing, with the next round scheduled for India in 2027, as mechanisms to manage risks of miscalculation while forward deployments remain substantial.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-08-28T13:17:06.824Z"},"version":"v1"},{"id":"17549","ticker":"natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025","slug":"natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025","title":"NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.\n\nAn official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.\n\nThe April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.\n","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-02-06T23:19:09.390407Z","creationDate":"2025-02-06T23:19:09.390405Z","endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025-aArQODeHnr5E.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025-aArQODeHnr5E.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":27145.62679,"volume":2649374.6231500003,"openInterest":27572.731378,"createdAt":"2025-02-06T22:01:47.648437Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-28T13:53:20.156649Z","competitive":0.8193831642570315,"volume1wk":22317.081574999997,"volume1mo":107958.22143599996,"volume1yr":2130098.4301340007,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":27145.62679,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":127,"markets":[{"id":"522057","question":"Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?","conditionId":"0x591f785022238c7ea2563553d93c024e451a18ea74d9bbd79a6126c0267c588a","slug":"ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-01-01T04:59:00Z","startDate":"2025-02-06T23:17:40.989Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025-aArQODeHnr5E.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025-aArQODeHnr5E.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.\n\nAn official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.\n\nThe April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.\n","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"426895.04694600054","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-09-23T22:48:06.9087Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-21T18:19:28.787714Z","closedTime":"2026-07-01 06:20:52+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"June 30, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"1","questionID":"0x263f1b3477c2089da3d02330254f591e278d17ae34dcc7a97d34d9168ee40e93","umaEndDate":"2026-07-01T06:20:52Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":426895.04694600054,"endDateIso":"2026-07-01","startDateIso":"2025-09-23","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":"[\"3990636992955197269726492696316350470613735002003547307529304314694325536205\", \"96546182602923845565665333214247145480942442058633439074100378407858539142465\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":426895.04694600054,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-09-23T23:15:05Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.002,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.02,"lastTradePrice":0.001,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-09-23T23:13:50.779738Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null,"version":"v1"},{"id":"1323364","question":"Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?","conditionId":"0x3e4e5225054ad5168e0b249164f643453ba97a8947f84d7aacb4c768275d48e9","slug":"ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-its-territory-by-december-31-2026","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","liquidity":"27145.62679","startDate":"2026-02-03T15:28:27.685198Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025-aArQODeHnr5E.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025-aArQODeHnr5E.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.\n\nAn official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.\n\nThe April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.\n","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.0305\", \"0.9695\"]","volume":"92381.14607","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-02-03T00:49:21.271194Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-28T13:52:57.114478Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"December 31, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"2","questionID":"0x6f6e52fb5399e62dfe71ed948ec48559623f053ae9d18b14892441d555a3be3e","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":92381.14607,"liquidityNum":27145.62679,"endDateIso":"2027-01-01","startDateIso":"2026-02-03","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":"[\"111407906413483830198481741547621131014289190946534570245645667771579973364067\", 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firm refusal to cede or formally recognize Russian control over occupied regions, including parts of Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, continues to block progress toward any settlement involving sovereignty concessions. Recent statements from Ukrainian officials, including presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov on August 27, 2026, signal intent to revive US-mediated talks possibly in September, building on proposals for a ceasefire along current lines, security guarantees, and economic arrangements rather than territorial recognition. Russia maintains its core demand for acknowledgment of annexed areas as a precondition, consistent with positions from earlier 2026 trilateral meetings that ended without agreement. Traders assess low near-term odds for Ukrainian recognition given these entrenched positions, constitutional constraints, and the absence of breakthroughs since February negotiations.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-08-28T13:01:58.865Z"},"version":"v1"},{"id":"18558","ticker":"ukraine-election-called-in-2025","slug":"ukraine-election-called-in-2025","title":"Ukraine election called by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-02-14T19:30:42.775652Z","creationDate":"2025-02-14T19:30:42.775649Z","endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":63230.42671,"volume":1832537.530412999,"openInterest":69161.490996,"createdAt":"2025-02-13T19:39:15.966366Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-28T13:53:20.156649Z","competitive":0.865033195648883,"volume24hr":2874.1849599999996,"volume1wk":97428.49217999999,"volume1mo":223873.841774,"volume1yr":1266956.4137870013,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":63230.42671,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":38,"markets":[{"id":"523343","question":"Ukraine election called in 2025?","conditionId":"0xf3d74c153a35436ff82a5f78200104975c5841140ace763f2954adb340cca511","slug":"ukraine-election-called-in-2025","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-01-01T04:59:00Z","startDate":"2025-02-14T19:28:26.116Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"982716.694339","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-02-13T19:39:17.849008Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-21T18:19:19.348904Z","closedTime":"2026-01-01 09:11:37+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"December 31, 2025","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xa094043bf8108d863998270c7f412507cd34679fa71dfb0bdd8e064ce1a92eb6","umaEndDate":"2026-01-01T09:11:37Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":982716.694339,"endDateIso":"2026-01-01","startDateIso":"2025-02-14","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":51836.18834100001,"volume1mo":165783.746216,"volume1yr":982716.6943390013,"clobTokenIds":"[\"22255463452594162709449800579658835371746668793825841462318307382376621533755\", \"57160884655103428512814247631012981773015723019889832549493437551469480061242\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":51836.18834100001,"volume1moClob":165783.746216,"volume1yrClob":982716.6943390013,"volumeClob":982716.694339,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-02-14T19:27:16Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.001,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.009,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.034,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null,"version":"v1"},{"id":"2261102","question":"Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?","conditionId":"0xfaa78bad74daeb6e5296ae5785df7805275d00e84c81dc37954446132595caed","slug":"ukraine-election-called-by-december-31-2026-924","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","liquidity":"32005.8369","startDate":"2026-05-14T15:50:14.726Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.105\", \"0.895\"]","volume":"81501.907802","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-05-14T15:47:25.888438Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-28T13:52:57.114478Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"December 31, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"4","questionID":"0xe95895cfda0599c4b93113ec17faf8d8e5f6c2af88b89687a3de84a3722d1c5f","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":81501.907802,"liquidityNum":32005.8369,"endDateIso":"2027-01-01","startDateIso":"2026-05-14","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":1480.5999599999998,"volume1wk":5666.380891000001,"volume1mo":9937.427469,"volume1yr":81501.907802,"clobTokenIds":"[\"108022836882070634894978103447460059415631393810246745281341648986501895644031\", \"50035578024412312502715156279765769139689669299163153792052060268176088979005\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":1480.5999599999998,"volume1wkClob":5666.380891000001,"volume1moClob":9937.427469,"volume1yrClob":81501.907802,"volumeClob":81501.907802,"liquidityClob":32005.8369,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-05-14T15:49:18Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.865033195648883,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"347551","conditionId":"0xfaa78bad74daeb6e5296ae5785df7805275d00e84c81dc37954446132595caed","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":3,"startDate":"2026-05-14","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.01,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.005,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.06,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.02,"lastTradePrice":0.11,"bestBid":0.1,"bestAsk":0.11,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-05-14T15:48:11.152562Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null,"version":"v1"},{"id":"2602067","question":"Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?","conditionId":"0x0bd9ea5ce49559923c2929958afa1c699b0c1ace54cdd6ffa0b56506e9273d56","slug":"ukraine-election-called-by-august-31-2026","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-09-01T03:59:00Z","liquidity":"31443.03381","startDate":"2026-06-19T01:12:17.959324Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.0015\", \"0.9985\"]","volume":"202737.81164600002","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-06-19T00:39:13.016754Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-28T13:52:57.114478Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0xF43d55F3A8B7484Ed4B6931f93CB6F9eF5Dd369D","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"August 31, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"3","questionID":"0x3c1b3521126759f28d31d776b34831d2cb032433a2f813fc95367ddaa03809fb","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":202737.81164600002,"liquidityNum":31443.03381,"endDateIso":"2026-09-01","startDateIso":"2026-06-19","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":1393.585,"volume1wk":39925.92294799998,"volume1mo":48152.66808899998,"volume1yr":202737.811646,"clobTokenIds":"[\"93493841580506086301850708011539393401066204405236876763051464421070051891780\", \"83943169380140685038489730889739849898318526088225940815697125664098988909042\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":1393.585,"volume1wkClob":39925.92294799998,"volume1moClob":48152.66808899998,"volume1yrClob":202737.811646,"volumeClob":202737.81164600002,"liquidityClob":31443.03381,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-06-19T01:11:29Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8009597099244316,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.001,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.0005,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.01,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.0365,"lastTradePrice":0.005,"bestBid":0.001,"bestAsk":0.002,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-06-19T01:08:46.745724Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null,"version":"v1"},{"id":"610380","question":"Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?","conditionId":"0x707125b175feb87a7d28c1e3b0e8e834f11c0dff65edac8c4fe5d1e12bf8fc33","slug":"ukraine-election-called-by-june-30-2026-392","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","startDate":"2025-09-23T23:18:41.037Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 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Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"296494.79415599955","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-09-23T22:49:20.966682Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-21T18:19:19.4312Z","closedTime":"2026-07-01 06:19:50+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"June 30, 2026","groupItemThreshold":"2","questionID":"0xcd56a2aab3432e062ad2520816476d101047d74039cb6b06eb80997243459e58","umaEndDate":"2026-07-01T06:19:50Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":296494.79415599955,"endDateIso":"2026-07-01","startDateIso":"2025-09-23","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":"[\"46392352440640691691403913163796829338832584619874037984805155658143745393622\", \"38746974225100760605049476871091018825176822620072388068043468416649080453478\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":296494.79415599955,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-09-23T23:18:19Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.002,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.0005,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.0065,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.025,"lastTradePrice":0.001,"bestAsk":0.002,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-09-23T23:17:51.796018Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null,"version":"v1"},{"id":"734115","question":"Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?","conditionId":"0xdab71ad1d7d7661435f2556eb8e29473d322d9d8af2705a9732c4872629de090","slug":"ukraine-election-called-by-march-31-2026","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-04-01T03:59:00Z","startDate":"2025-12-01T12:39:26.304555Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-election-scheduled-in-2025-a5A5LV93aoXr.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 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President Zelenskyy has rejected calls for a wartime vote, describing it as a \"tsunami\" that would divide the country amid security risks, displaced voters, and occupied territories. Former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov's August 18 demand for elections—following his dismissal—broke a prior taboo but drew swift opposition from Zelenskyy's allies and limited public support, with 57% of Ukrainians favoring a poll only after fighting ends. Logistical barriers, including voter registration gaps and front-line participation, plus the lack of any draft wartime election law, continue to anchor trader expectations toward a post-ceasefire timeline.","context_requires_regen":true,"context_updated_at":"2026-08-28T13:46:53.596Z"},"version":"v1"},{"id":"18571","ticker":"will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025","slug":"will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025","title":"Will any country leave NATO by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nA country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-02-13T23:08:41.618074Z","creationDate":"2025-02-13T23:08:41.618072Z","endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":20631.79759,"volume":1409267.966467002,"openInterest":41374.380597999996,"createdAt":"2025-02-13T22:27:42.74491Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-28T13:53:20.156649Z","competitive":0.8140114156960937,"volume1wk":4019.526555,"volume1mo":16194.359761000002,"volume1yr":277041.2724220001,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":20631.79759,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":26,"markets":[{"id":"523413","question":"Will any country leave NATO in 2025?","conditionId":"0x1b74c3efe140a09049e0eb6b6a2112e00fa4d199cdc718c1a58af1abf6d9e49d","slug":"will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-01-01T04:59:00Z","startDate":"2025-02-13T23:07:31.891Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nA country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". 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Recent developments center on former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov’s mid-August call for a wartime ballot, which President Zelenskyy rejected on August 23 as a divisive risk that would split the country and strengthen Russia’s position. Lawmakers have formed a working group but produced no draft legislation, consistent with the 2023 cross-party agreement delaying any vote until at least six months after martial law ends and security conditions allow participation by soldiers, displaced citizens, and those abroad. Polls indicate most Ukrainians prefer elections only after fighting stops, while security threats from ongoing Russian strikes and the absence of a ceasefire make near-term scheduling improbable. 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements will qualify. Pregnancy announcements that are not credible, for example jokes, will not suffice.    \n\nThe resolution source will be statements from Taylor Swift or her representatives; however, a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"1949547.316063","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"0xfb9243EBdB3EF80AB05D3A13eeac2077BA7B4651","createdAt":"2025-04-07T21:37:06.313888Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-21T18:19:43.197681Z","closedTime":"2026-01-01 08:18:43+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x157Ce2d672854c848c9b79C49a8Cc6cc89176a49","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"December 31, 2025","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xa12fe1d8a10d37cf3b3e67f120795bd764e898b47ab7ab7b0b5e65738ab83fd0","umaEndDate":"2026-01-01T08:18:43Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":1949547.316063,"endDateIso":"2026-01-01","startDateIso":"2025-07-30","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":29206.699485000016,"volume1mo":111552.94768699995,"volume1yr":1949547.3160629966,"clobTokenIds":"[\"44305836174662659056360031599221289950024907383706896555756948878751959775782\", \"72122482770569588499506755542531317316214547923366033552728295449545343415738\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":29206.699485000016,"volume1moClob":111552.94768699995,"volume1yrClob":1949547.3160629966,"volumeClob":1949547.316063,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-07-30T15:47:02Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":200,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.001,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.002,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.024,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-07-30T15:46:31.557378Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"culture_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25},"version":"v1"},{"id":"3734497","question":"Taylor Swift pregnant by September 30?","conditionId":"0xb7f535311eed765630d1070acf8a8e646e70c0eaf32c348fcb0472150c70d0e7","slug":"taylor-swift-pregnant-by-september-30","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","liquidity":"5635.22999","startDate":"2026-08-20T01:16:31Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/taylor-swift-pregnant-in-2025-5cpC3Ir4u5Pd.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/taylor-swift-pregnant-in-2025-5cpC3Ir4u5Pd.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Taylor Swift announces that she is pregnant between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 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President Trump publicly downplayed the threat, stating Russia would not attack NATO territory. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues with intensified Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, while bilateral talks stay stalled and no direct US-Russia kinetic engagement has occurred. Upcoming diplomatic or escalation signals in the proxy war or NATO's eastern flank could influence trader views on near-term direct clash probabilities.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-08-28T13:32:21.094Z"},"version":"v1"},{"id":"25413","ticker":"will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025","slug":"will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025","title":"Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 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CIA Director John Ratcliffe's late-August visit to Moscow conveyed direct warnings against such escalation, following reports of Russian drone activity near NATO borders and suspected sabotage incidents in Europe. Russian officials have rejected these claims and emphasized defensive postures. Ongoing Russian operations in Ukraine continue alongside military reconstitution efforts, while NATO maintains enhanced eastern deployments and exercises. 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These discussions follow earlier 2026 agreements on intelligence sharing and build on Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s statements about pursuing a security pact that could eventually support broader understandings, though Damascus prioritizes Israeli withdrawal from post-Assad positions and maintains its claim to the Golan Heights. Israeli policy adjustments appear tied to external diplomatic pressure amid regional dynamics, yet core gaps on sovereignty, buffer zones, and trust persist. Traders assessing timelines for full normalization—typically encompassing diplomatic relations and formal accords—monitor these security-focused steps against longstanding territorial and political barriers.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-08-28T13:16:52.321Z"},"version":"v1"},{"id":"25827","ticker":"will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october","slug":"will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october","title":"Will Russia capture Sumy by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg\n\nSumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-06-02T23:46:20.92503Z","creationDate":"2025-06-02T23:46:20.925028Z","endDate":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-april-30-xHE-DWW9kL3z.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-april-30-xHE-DWW9kL3z.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":19008.4066,"volume":831864.924324,"openInterest":59242.881467,"createdAt":"2025-06-02T23:22:03.880999Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-28T13:53:20.156649Z","competitive":0.8470089994706194,"volume24hr":50,"volume1wk":26661.060318000007,"volume1mo":120168.83127500002,"volume1yr":704491.3574920004,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":19008.4066,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":3,"markets":[{"id":"549369","question":"Will Russia capture Sumy before October?","conditionId":"0x2e43d977463a0d78a859fdd95d1570287b888ed6c9d4670532d46c22a3a7478f","slug":"will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-10-01T03:59:00Z","startDate":"2025-06-02T23:44:22.433Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-april-30-xHE-DWW9kL3z.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-april-30-xHE-DWW9kL3z.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg\n\nSumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"381269.57535","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-06-02T23:22:04.663794Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-21T18:19:46.608419Z","closedTime":"2025-10-01 06:28:35+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"September 30","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xc292987912c2a2bb7625264c37372cfb52c0ec0b4ba47de96fc113ea237c539f","umaEndDate":"2025-10-01T06:28:35Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":381269.57535,"endDateIso":"2025-10-01","startDateIso":"2025-06-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":18410.261264000008,"volume1mo":103689.30334000001,"volume1yr":381269.5753500006,"clobTokenIds":"[\"89244604917884926160625177966654861361773687111351363433133890695112579712991\", \"110815329360399496294282500790145915513938018634460140521473012690924217649290\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":18410.261264000008,"volume1moClob":103689.30334000001,"volume1yrClob":381269.5753500006,"volumeClob":381269.57535,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-06-02T23:43:39Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"428055","conditionId":"0x2e43d977463a0d78a859fdd95d1570287b888ed6c9d4670532d46c22a3a7478f","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":2,"startDate":"2026-06-10","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.003,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.0025,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.016,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.003,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-06-02T23:42:58.821916Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null,"version":"v1"},{"id":"595710","question":"Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31?","conditionId":"0xdf7970971fee58026dd3331e3ebafa799382443267f5b4f959f2e14e05c7900c","slug":"will-russia-capture-sumy-by-december-31","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-01-01T04:59:00Z","startDate":"2025-09-12T22:23:43.636Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-april-30-xHE-DWW9kL3z.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-april-30-xHE-DWW9kL3z.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg\n\nSumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"41883.223423","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-09-12T22:02:25.641022Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-21T18:19:46.618212Z","closedTime":"2026-01-01 09:14:41+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"December 31","groupItemThreshold":"1","questionID":"0x0b0f3045281bd0c38dab7291130422df13439dccd9bb0d7f8fcef3b8b1c8c938","umaEndDate":"2026-01-01T09:14:41Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":41883.223423,"endDateIso":"2026-01-01","startDateIso":"2025-09-12","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":4707.289054000001,"volume1mo":8453.722941000002,"volume1yr":41883.223422999945,"clobTokenIds":"[\"113777108163164905235571666706747814422084924734560307406382096188502967396838\", \"89723881360844693423501132334367177605809223639934057436541374866201599179440\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":4707.289054000001,"volume1moClob":8453.722941000002,"volume1yrClob":41883.223422999945,"volumeClob":41883.223423,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-09-12T22:23:23Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"428058","conditionId":"0xdf7970971fee58026dd3331e3ebafa799382443267f5b4f959f2e14e05c7900c","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":2,"startDate":"2026-06-10","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.0025,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.014,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-09-12T22:22:54.382354Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null,"version":"v1"},{"id":"1007579","question":"Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?","conditionId":"0x6176cc868c8893cf431ae1e8103d4d4c1fcfcf239c3b3415b672151337125884","slug":"will-russia-capture-sumy-by-march-31-2027","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","liquidity":"19064.6525","startDate":"2025-12-23T23:02:06.89Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-april-30-xHE-DWW9kL3z.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-april-30-xHE-DWW9kL3z.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg\n\nSumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.075\", \"0.925\"]","volume":"408712.12555100006","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-12-23T22:30:21.792558Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-28T13:52:57.114478Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"March 31, 2027","groupItemThreshold":"2","questionID":"0x181c6dfc8d24cd07cff8b804a37b96de8ff0d5ec2c8f7fee81f882e78450d329","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":408712.12555100006,"liquidityNum":19064.6525,"endDateIso":"2027-04-01","startDateIso":"2025-12-23","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":50,"volume1wk":3543.51,"volume1mo":8025.804994,"volume1yr":281338.55871899996,"clobTokenIds":"[\"53233529358602879115478722993262404502732073224174276202211965211706009589067\", \"76350537296247188972152277947349396667408693228883257954471424426267688952517\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":50,"volume1wkClob":3543.51,"volume1moClob":8025.804994,"volume1yrClob":281338.55871899996,"volumeClob":408712.12555100006,"liquidityClob":19064.6525,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-12-23T23:01:45Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8470089994706194,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"291748","conditionId":"0x6176cc868c8893cf431ae1e8103d4d4c1fcfcf239c3b3415b672151337125884","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":3,"startDate":"2026-08-28","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":30,"rewardsMaxSpread":6.5,"spread":0.01,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.005,"oneMonthPriceChange":0.005,"lastTradePrice":0.08,"bestBid":0.07,"bestAsk":0.08,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-12-23T22:31:08.293347Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null,"version":"v1"}],"tags":[{"id":"100265","label":"Geopolitics","slug":"geopolitics","forceShow":true,"createdAt":"2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:49:04.209055Z","requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"101970","label":"World","slug":"world","forceShow":false,"createdAt":"2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T17:18:59.135061Z","requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"270","label":"putin","slug":"putin","publishedAt":"2023-11-02 21:46:19.507+00","createdAt":"2023-11-02T21:46:19.528Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:26:28.78978Z","requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"102475","label":"Russia Capture","slug":"russia-capture","forceShow":false,"createdAt":"2025-08-07T21:17:05.925606Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T21:11:46.156489Z","isCarousel":false,"requiresTranslation":false},{"id":"102486","label":"Ukraine Map","slug":"ukraine-map","forceShow":false,"createdAt":"2025-08-12T21:44:08.906337Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-17T20:39:54.187435Z","isCarousel":false,"requiresTranslation":false}],"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"estimateValue":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Russian forces continue limited offensive operations and infiltration attempts in northern Sumy Oblast aimed at establishing buffer zones along the border, with recent activity including strikes and small-unit movements near villages north of Sumy City as of late August 2026. Ukrainian forces have repelled advances and maintained control over key settlements, according to assessments from the Institute for the Study of War, despite Russian Ministry of Defense claims of seizures that independent analysis often deems exaggerated or unconfirmed. This pattern of incremental pressure without major territorial gains has shaped trader consensus around low near-term probabilities for full capture of Sumy, reflecting sustained Ukrainian defensive posture and the absence of large-scale mechanized breakthroughs in the sector. Scheduled Ukrainian reinforcements or shifts in Russian force allocation could influence outcomes within resolution windows.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-08-28T10:16:56.872Z"},"version":"v1"},{"id":"25930","ticker":"pumpfun-airdop-by","slug":"pumpfun-airdop-by","title":"Pump.fun airdrop by ....? ","description":"This is a market on predicting the recipient of the Pump.fun airdrop.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-06-03T20:42:29.071569Z","creationDate":"2025-06-03T20:42:29.071567Z","endDate":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/pumpfun-launch-a-token-by-RzTi7_aC42Qa.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/pumpfun-launch-a-token-by-RzTi7_aC42Qa.png","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":2801.6642,"volume":2774734.6859310004,"openInterest":26178.731132,"createdAt":"2025-06-03T20:29:19.151437Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-28T13:53:20.156649Z","competitive":0.9174311926605505,"volume24hr":20.083332,"volume1wk":510418.71335,"volume1mo":1761039.6955620006,"volume1yr":2422157.729197002,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":2801.6642,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":267,"markets":[{"id":"549617","question":"Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by June 30? ","conditionId":"0xe72c8292b92a6cdf7579bde39ab606b7391973c235d0aea193249be945c5d444","slug":"will-pumpfun-perform-an-airdrop-by-june-30","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-06-30T00:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-06-03T20:40:35.808533Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/pumpfun-launch-a-token-by-RzTi7_aC42Qa.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/pumpfun-launch-a-token-by-RzTi7_aC42Qa.png","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Pump.fun launches a token and performs an airdrop by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market \"locked\" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Pump.fun, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"52666.569427","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-06-03T20:30:36.650475Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-28T11:04:22.250504Z","closedTime":"2025-07-01 08:13:23+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"June 30","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xe1f4d4f48a499ba18c3021901dd96f85f23a755eadf67bcd82b3ce030e550fcb","umaEndDate":"2025-07-01T08:13:23Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":52666.569427,"endDateIso":"2025-06-30","startDateIso":"2025-06-03","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":15317.731632999996,"volume1mo":52666.569427000024,"volume1yr":52666.569427000024,"clobTokenIds":"[\"114096480064841487203290093703117607690468018481845116323176914548002435186035\", \"39935063821726037310606795265113282924890330321756982209233099836916359221750\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":15317.731632999996,"volume1moClob":52666.569427000024,"volume1yrClob":52666.569427000024,"volumeClob":52666.569427,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-06-03T20:40:12Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"25730","conditionId":"0xe72c8292b92a6cdf7579bde39ab606b7391973c235d0aea193249be945c5d444","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":5,"startDate":"2025-06-03","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.004,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.006,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.0195,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.004,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-06-03T20:39:39.557734Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"crypto_fees_v2","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.07,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.2},"version":"v1"},{"id":"549618","question":"Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? ","conditionId":"0xb5f38d569f21df62db1b694fdd1e45b7393ac73615bef37abfc59c9d5a2f7808","slug":"will-pumpfun-perform-an-airdrop-by-july-31-382","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-07-31T00:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-06-03T20:40:49.966Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/pumpfun-launch-a-token-by-RzTi7_aC42Qa.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/pumpfun-launch-a-token-by-RzTi7_aC42Qa.png","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Pump.fun launches a token and performs an airdrop by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market \"locked\" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Pump.fun, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"1069727.824669","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-06-03T20:30:59.039929Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-28T11:04:22.250504Z","closedTime":"2025-08-01 06:18:28+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"July 31","groupItemThreshold":"2","questionID":"0x0d18f19341cdcba1a90740acfc6ab50c1db123a29deb4793a7dd4fe30a750527","umaEndDate":"2025-08-01T06:18:28Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":1069727.824669,"endDateIso":"2025-07-31","startDateIso":"2025-06-03","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":142901.546792,"volume1mo":996433.0598660002,"volume1yr":1069727.8246690005,"clobTokenIds":"[\"57960385336933035060536952821883163657331297098373651761775928216040869027710\", \"9822756624087001797967170305172891544163269257046442316750385616205996335772\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":142901.546792,"volume1moClob":996433.0598660002,"volume1yrClob":1069727.8246690005,"volumeClob":1069727.824669,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-06-03T20:40:22Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"25731","conditionId":"0xb5f38d569f21df62db1b694fdd1e45b7393ac73615bef37abfc59c9d5a2f7808","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":5,"startDate":"2025-06-03","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.002,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.0045,"oneHourPriceChange":0.0015,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.026,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.353,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestBid":0.001,"bestAsk":0.003,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-06-03T20:39:39.560931Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"crypto_fees_v2","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.07,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.2},"version":"v1"},{"id":"561699","question":"Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 18? ","conditionId":"0x5b6750dc0ed93ee1db9e614acce6750d09a62ac5f3acee1ef52069fd4547f42c","slug":"will-pumpfun-perform-an-airdrop-by-july-18-659","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-07-18T00:00:00Z","startDate":"2025-07-09T18:09:16.794241Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/pumpfun-launch-a-token-by-RzTi7_aC42Qa.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/pumpfun-launch-a-token-by-RzTi7_aC42Qa.png","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Pump.fun launches a token and performs an airdrop by July 18, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market \"locked\" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Pump.fun, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"289037.884193","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"0x15808DF09AebDb08d8bB05c9D495228705b37BAE","createdAt":"2025-07-09T17:32:09.314709Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-28T11:04:22.250504Z","closedTime":"2025-07-19 06:01:12+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x157Ce2d672854c848c9b79C49a8Cc6cc89176a49","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"July 18","groupItemThreshold":"1","questionID":"0xf4f6b4c072bcacc6f24adb2d072c5da0cd1ff26ec3fa3fdfb69dd57dcbce3389","umaEndDate":"2025-07-19T06:01:12Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":289037.884193,"endDateIso":"2025-07-18","startDateIso":"2025-07-09","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":238248.63011800003,"volume1mo":289037.88419300003,"volume1yr":289037.88419300003,"clobTokenIds":"[\"65608197540292369730706565823104369647418484707426319698850083358894302812849\", \"37218309103910000125660160462106635146821217784108993481792756430689309526086\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":238248.63011800003,"volume1moClob":289037.88419300003,"volume1yrClob":289037.88419300003,"volumeClob":289037.884193,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-07-09T18:08:53Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"28515","conditionId":"0x5b6750dc0ed93ee1db9e614acce6750d09a62ac5f3acee1ef52069fd4547f42c","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":10,"startDate":"2025-07-07","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.0115,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.003,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.2195,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-07-09T18:08:18.523736Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"crypto_fees_v2","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.07,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.2},"version":"v1"},{"id":"561700","question":"Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? 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Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Pump.fun, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"200666.069648","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"0x5d782E4B700eB71f2Bb56E47d6917e83057d1D22","createdAt":"2025-07-09T17:33:01.313273Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-28T11:04:22.250504Z","closedTime":"2025-09-01 06:25:42+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x157Ce2d672854c848c9b79C49a8Cc6cc89176a49","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"August 31","groupItemThreshold":"3","questionID":"0x058344b246b5d42ba605cbe0300f3a2b7fdd5266184b5067079ceadb7a6261a3","umaEndDate":"2025-09-01T06:25:42Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":200666.069648,"endDateIso":"2025-08-31","startDateIso":"2025-07-09","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":41244.655009999995,"volume1mo":82384.84169599996,"volume1yr":200666.0696480001,"clobTokenIds":"[\"114640268590406907962184605424775655383241156941956707940638133541507504445621\", \"45793311573274325829757016897017281836586103626500470387490494921613407268014\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":41244.655009999995,"volume1moClob":82384.84169599996,"volume1yrClob":200666.0696480001,"volumeClob":200666.069648,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-07-09T18:09:35Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.0065,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.0005,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.0215,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.224,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-07-09T18:08:58.935551Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"crypto_fees_v2","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.07,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.2},"version":"v1"},{"id":"567468","question":"Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by September 30? 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Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Pump.fun, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0\", \"1\"]","volume":"108791.977684","active":true,"closed":true,"marketMakerAddress":"0x876a5BC8b7A0ad34725249acD9e992284F0b19b3","createdAt":"2025-07-24T11:08:31.846681Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-28T11:04:22.250504Z","closedTime":"2025-10-01 07:05:03+00","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x157Ce2d672854c848c9b79C49a8Cc6cc89176a49","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"September 30","groupItemThreshold":"4","questionID":"0x37c05940a2eccef88444ed9d351eada28ee1239377b10ea20bd0be502ca99945","umaEndDate":"2025-10-01T07:05:03Z","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"resolved","volumeNum":108791.977684,"endDateIso":"2025-09-30","startDateIso":"2025-07-24","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume1wk":10458.530264000003,"volume1mo":93641.63998800001,"volume1yr":108791.97768400001,"clobTokenIds":"[\"75112941187539526409972576368403311608275897139761290995412586232765409639234\", \"113218646663666792292676570964657964326558132706001794680600269251785538892935\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume1wkClob":10458.530264000003,"volume1moClob":93641.63998800001,"volume1yrClob":108791.97768400001,"volumeClob":108791.977684,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":false,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-07-24T15:44:42Z","cyom":false,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.009,"automaticallyResolved":true,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.003,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.021,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.14,"lastTradePrice":1,"bestBid":0.001,"bestAsk":0.01,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-07-24T15:44:02.638319Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"crypto_fees_v2","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.07,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.2},"version":"v1"},{"id":"567469","question":"Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? 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