{"$schema":"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/schemas/Market.json","id":"3680995","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?","conditionId":"0x71ccb7c37fc5e6f71ceee0df9593e21c7b60513f986ac7c3d61318f8f3921292","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-below-1pt5","resolutionSource":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/","endDate":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","liquidity":"2571.08784","startDate":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\".\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.0005\", \"0.9995\"]","volume":"1686.3744700000002","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-08-17T19:17:41.013398Z","updatedAt":"2026-10-23T06:34:05.235899Z","new":false,"featured":false,"archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Under 1.5","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0x00774fb5c71d1fd22e5603e56cb8028039d1c5c116a78af288b026dda97bd200","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":1686.3744700000002,"liquidityNum":2571.08784,"endDateIso":"2027-04-01","startDateIso":"2026-08-17","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":"[\"89274580051268000555967992535786782082358264627474153448058200692256355613045\", \"17022871102536681518914158737873047207450105544612205971898190948061930557777\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":1686.3744700000002,"liquidityClob":2571.08784,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0x00774fb5c71d1fd22e5603e56cb8028039d1c5c116a78af288b026dda97bd200","negRiskRequestID":"0x895b1d9cf6726a3f43348e48d60aec2b7e48f681f550ed311c64e16f3e5bbcd0","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8003199679231757,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.001,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.0015,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.002,"lastTradePrice":0.001,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"groupItemRange":"[\"-3\", \"1.5\"]","umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-17T19:17:46.192041Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"feeType":"zero_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0},"fallbackResolutionType":"none","version":"v1"}