{"$schema":"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/schemas/Market.json","id":"3680996","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?","conditionId":"0x129cfab9b84e98f654c8526c3d9769644ec54d5d75ba16e782dc52321cc59a3a","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-1pt5-but-below-2pt0","resolutionSource":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/","endDate":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","liquidity":"3292.04333","startDate":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\".\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.0005\", \"0.9995\"]","volume":"4799.163331","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-08-17T19:17:41.172649Z","updatedAt":"2026-10-23T06:36:04.771495Z","new":false,"featured":false,"archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"1.5–2.0","groupItemThreshold":"1","questionID":"0x00774fb5c71d1fd22e5603e56cb8028039d1c5c116a78af288b026dda97bd201","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":4799.163331,"liquidityNum":3292.04333,"endDateIso":"2027-04-01","startDateIso":"2026-08-17","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":80,"volume1wk":870.7900000000001,"volume1mo":1372.81,"volume1yr":2361.9466650000004,"clobTokenIds":"[\"54654150424133426585936260495472257499313197167283841414281669235930875099238\", \"81414730920348458855931448477810874810166210375108141790861202160219625289662\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":80,"volume1wkClob":870.7900000000001,"volume1moClob":1372.81,"volume1yrClob":2361.9466650000004,"volumeClob":4799.163331,"liquidityClob":3292.04333,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0x00774fb5c71d1fd22e5603e56cb8028039d1c5c116a78af288b026dda97bd200","negRiskRequestID":"0xf7d9c6745cd12c53dfb0ce7003294e958dfd677c44273de608253900ebe45b37","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8003199679231757,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.001,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.0045,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.01,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.0075,"lastTradePrice":0.001,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"groupItemRange":"[\"1.5\", \"2\"]","umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-17T19:17:46.192041Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"feeType":"zero_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0},"fallbackResolutionType":"none","version":"v1"}