{"$schema":"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/schemas/Market.json","id":"3680997","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?","conditionId":"0xdd754c3696e87d9d0a1b3fd246af196e505e96b88038391012295b80d0d23752","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-2pt0-but-below-2pt25","resolutionSource":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/","endDate":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","liquidity":"3480.66137","startDate":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\".\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.0245\", \"0.9755\"]","volume":"6574.637188000001","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-08-17T19:17:41.337495Z","updatedAt":"2026-10-23T05:40:05.412856Z","new":false,"featured":false,"archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"2.0–2.25","groupItemThreshold":"2","questionID":"0x00774fb5c71d1fd22e5603e56cb8028039d1c5c116a78af288b026dda97bd202","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":6574.637188000001,"liquidityNum":3480.66137,"endDateIso":"2027-04-01","startDateIso":"2026-08-17","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":683.34,"volume1wk":2270.177833,"volume1mo":3295.743447,"volume1yr":6574.637188000001,"clobTokenIds":"[\"9873279979792592000738095434187898590448991292617729335373939589675162955039\", \"24611633272253569314058844930411344837095945130923356130202013651568709515638\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":683.34,"volume1wkClob":2270.177833,"volume1moClob":3295.743447,"volume1yrClob":6574.637188000001,"volumeClob":6574.637188000001,"liquidityClob":3480.66137,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0x00774fb5c71d1fd22e5603e56cb8028039d1c5c116a78af288b026dda97bd200","negRiskRequestID":"0x6acab9761d5a220380beb0c6dcd9225319f39d1e9063588c81c3e1298326986d","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8155939940473872,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.031,"oneDayPriceChange":0.009,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.0005,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.0015,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.0005,"lastTradePrice":0.018,"bestBid":0.009,"bestAsk":0.04,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"groupItemRange":"[\"2\", \"2.25\"]","umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-17T19:17:46.192041Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"feeType":"zero_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0},"fallbackResolutionType":"none","version":"v1"}