{"$schema":"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/schemas/Market.json","id":"3680998","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?","conditionId":"0x3a311da04811ff7c8e003f14cd0ea80a7b95b51812b604228866874e3cd002bd","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-2pt25-but-below-2pt5","resolutionSource":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/","endDate":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","liquidity":"2893.8378","startDate":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\".\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.33\", \"0.67\"]","volume":"53600.583460999995","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-08-17T19:17:41.495876Z","updatedAt":"2026-10-23T03:16:04.995956Z","new":false,"featured":false,"archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"2.25–2.5","groupItemThreshold":"3","questionID":"0x00774fb5c71d1fd22e5603e56cb8028039d1c5c116a78af288b026dda97bd203","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":53600.583460999995,"liquidityNum":2893.8378,"endDateIso":"2027-04-01","startDateIso":"2026-08-17","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":3996.632122,"volume1wk":10508.60547,"volume1mo":33790.497018999995,"volume1yr":53600.583460999995,"clobTokenIds":"[\"96306173729168928753902049690316969219580448346381915468922109690067101781718\", \"2526724473459508700730317454449623492019754637050593555508792407796018051974\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":3996.632122,"volume1wkClob":10508.60547,"volume1moClob":33790.497018999995,"volume1yrClob":53600.583460999995,"volumeClob":53600.583460999995,"liquidityClob":2893.8378,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0x00774fb5c71d1fd22e5603e56cb8028039d1c5c116a78af288b026dda97bd200","negRiskRequestID":"0xc1c7d5480fb99700cee941feaa0c6088d527e77c5535a691d884b639855278ca","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9719117504130625,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"1438420","conditionId":"0x3a311da04811ff7c8e003f14cd0ea80a7b95b51812b604228866874e3cd002bd","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":23,"startDate":"2026-10-15","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.02,"oneDayPriceChange":0.055,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.06,"oneMonthPriceChange":0.145,"lastTradePrice":0.31,"bestBid":0.32,"bestAsk":0.34,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"groupItemRange":"[\"2.25\", \"2.5\"]","umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-17T19:17:46.192041Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"feeType":"zero_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0},"fallbackResolutionType":"none","version":"v1"}
