{"$schema":"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/schemas/Market.json","id":"3680999","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?","conditionId":"0xbbd3a0e2bf9512aca0676b07657e6056a1a7d90efc0d03cff8ad4e84562b4d4d","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-2pt5-or-above","resolutionSource":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/","endDate":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","liquidity":"2073.0671","startDate":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\". This market resolves \"Yes\" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves \"No\" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27.\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.65\", \"0.35\"]","volume":"52498.160469999995","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-08-17T19:17:41.655304Z","updatedAt":"2026-10-23T07:40:04.987602Z","new":false,"featured":false,"archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Over 2.5","groupItemThreshold":"4","questionID":"0x00774fb5c71d1fd22e5603e56cb8028039d1c5c116a78af288b026dda97bd204","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":52498.160469999995,"liquidityNum":2073.0671,"endDateIso":"2027-04-01","startDateIso":"2026-08-17","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":922.774029,"volume1wk":6666.909524999999,"volume1mo":29107.239711999995,"volume1yr":52498.160469999995,"clobTokenIds":"[\"73167984433794646180256007755830147381798872864411072728826486689330795271050\", \"5050087307326338310947030705618857874672654028414778633672520247197222572818\"]","comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":922.774029,"volume1wkClob":6666.909524999999,"volume1moClob":29107.239711999995,"volume1yrClob":52498.160469999995,"volumeClob":52498.160469999995,"liquidityClob":2073.0671,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0x00774fb5c71d1fd22e5603e56cb8028039d1c5c116a78af288b026dda97bd200","negRiskRequestID":"0xc3c1844992d77a4400ef23a6efb72b08826319866eb7a39f8900386cf0c1ebb4","ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9779951100244499,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"1438421","conditionId":"0xbbd3a0e2bf9512aca0676b07657e6056a1a7d90efc0d03cff8ad4e84562b4d4d","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":27,"startDate":"2026-10-15","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.02,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.03,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.105,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.13,"lastTradePrice":0.67,"bestBid":0.64,"bestAsk":0.66,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"groupItemRange":"[\"2.5\", \"5\"]","umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-17T19:17:46.192041Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"feeType":"zero_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0},"fallbackResolutionType":"none","version":"v1"}