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Recent official announcements confirm the shift from the prior May 26 target, giving additional months for developments such as a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, new album drops from artists like Playboi Carti or Rihanna, or tech milestones including a GPT-6 release. Industry watchers note how Rockstar’s history of polished launches and Take-Two’s financial calendar often influence these timelines, while ongoing rumors of further slips add uncertainty. 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Recent official announcements confirm the shift from the prior May 26 target, giving additional months for developments such as a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, new album drops from artists like Playboi Carti or Rihanna, or tech milestones including a GPT-6 release. Industry watchers note how Rockstar’s history of polished launches and Take-Two’s financial calendar often influence these timelines, while ongoing rumors of further slips add uncertainty. 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nThe resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.485\", \"0.515\"]","volume":"11432676.181927864","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T15:08:16.157823Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-21T19:43:51.351217Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Jesus Christ returns","groupItemThreshold":"4","questionID":"0x9e84e9020884d3e603df981dc049bed477b64acfc623a739a7c51fed8de6cc5c","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":11432676.181927864,"liquidityNum":386863.8488,"endDateIso":"2026-07-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":14632.899956000005,"volume1wk":68541.27159199998,"volume1mo":319327.5341550004,"volume1yr":10979765.27208691,"clobTokenIds":"[\"90435811253665578014957380826505992530054077692143838383981805324273750424057\", \"92388629082681805622801622703528982922543286352927708208755887536971583436902\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":14632.899956000005,"volume1wkClob":68541.27159199998,"volume1moClob":319327.5341550004,"volume1yrClob":10979765.27208691,"volumeClob":11432676.181927864,"liquidityClob":386863.8488,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","events":[{"id":"23784","ticker":"what-will-happen-before-gta-vi","slug":"what-will-happen-before-gta-vi","title":"What will happen before GTA VI?","description":"This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:25.262673Z","creationDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:25.262669Z","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":647329.66462,"volume":22165748.213326484,"openInterest":745041.758044,"sortBy":"price","createdAt":"2025-05-02T14:55:28.249386Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-21T19:40:00.914977Z","competitive":0.9999750006249843,"volume24hr":27242.766203000006,"volume1wk":266597.1080239999,"volume1mo":751489.5183679999,"volume1yr":19233217.50024678,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":647329.66462,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":867,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Rockstar Games’ latest delay of Grand Theft Auto VI to November 19, 2026 has extended the window for major cultural and geopolitical events to occur beforehand, shaping trader sentiment around the multi-outcome market. Recent official announcements confirm the shift from the prior May 26 target, giving additional months for developments such as a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, new album drops from artists like Playboi Carti or Rihanna, or tech milestones including a GPT-6 release. Industry watchers note how Rockstar’s history of polished launches and Take-Two’s financial calendar often influence these timelines, while ongoing rumors of further slips add uncertainty. Traders are monitoring upcoming trailer updates, streaming metrics for related media, and international news cycles that could resolve specific outcomes before the November launch.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-05-21T19:31:11.778Z"}}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:47Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9997750506136119,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":0,"rewardsMaxSpread":0,"spread":0.01,"oneYearPriceChange":0.36,"lastTradePrice":0.49,"bestBid":0.48,"bestAsk":0.49,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:04.72195Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"general_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}},{"id":"540820","question":"Trump out as President before GTA VI?","conditionId":"0x84f8b70331323c2fba97d7ceaa9a35fb645a0770d0dbff169d07f24f376766e9","slug":"trump-out-as-president-before-gta-vi-846","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"54971.4854","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:17.107Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. 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Recent official announcements confirm the shift from the prior May 26 target, giving additional months for developments such as a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, new album drops from artists like Playboi Carti or Rihanna, or tech milestones including a GPT-6 release. Industry watchers note how Rockstar’s history of polished launches and Take-Two’s financial calendar often influence these timelines, while ongoing rumors of further slips add uncertainty. Traders are monitoring upcoming trailer updates, streaming metrics for related media, and international news cycles that could resolve specific outcomes before the November launch.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-05-21T19:31:11.778Z"}}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:49Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9999750006249843,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"350879","conditionId":"0x84f8b70331323c2fba97d7ceaa9a35fb645a0770d0dbff169d07f24f376766e9","assetAddress":"0xc011a7e12a19f7b1f670d46f03b03f3342e82dfb","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":0.001,"startDate":"2026-05-15","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":0,"rewardsMaxSpread":0,"spread":0.01,"oneDayPriceChange":0.01,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.005,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.02,"oneYearPriceChange":0.365,"lastTradePrice":0.51,"bestBid":0.5,"bestAsk":0.51,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:04.726154Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"general_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25}},{"id":"540843","question":"Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?","conditionId":"0x7b49b9bacb5f435bc10f3b100ff59e2fdd346f7f92a9001881bc9825a0af0f11","slug":"will-china-invades-taiwan-before-gta-vi-716","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"39698.8725","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:16.6Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. 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Recent official announcements confirm the shift from the prior May 26 target, giving additional months for developments such as a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, new album drops from artists like Playboi Carti or Rihanna, or tech milestones including a GPT-6 release. Industry watchers note how Rockstar’s history of polished launches and Take-Two’s financial calendar often influence these timelines, while ongoing rumors of further slips add uncertainty. 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Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.4885\", \"0.5115\"]","volume":"4277935.763328551","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T15:24:45.04244Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-21T19:37:06.569181Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Bitcoin hits $1m","groupItemThreshold":"7","questionID":"0x7e4ff7b7fdfe7d1fbc6c0e2a7626ae4fc8d62f3848a5e601d511a51bdfa51f09","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":4277935.763328551,"liquidityNum":104113.59152,"endDateIso":"2026-07-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":7241.8112329999985,"volume1wk":157495.60498599987,"volume1mo":269994.8639569995,"volume1yr":4195505.421720804,"clobTokenIds":"[\"105267568073659068217311993901927962476298440625043565106676088842803600775810\", \"91863162118308663069733924043159186005106558783397508844234610341221325526200\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":7241.8112329999985,"volume1wkClob":157495.60498599987,"volume1moClob":269994.8639569995,"volume1yrClob":4195505.421720804,"volumeClob":4277935.763328551,"liquidityClob":104113.59152,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","events":[{"id":"23784","ticker":"what-will-happen-before-gta-vi","slug":"what-will-happen-before-gta-vi","title":"What will happen before GTA VI?","description":"This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:25.262673Z","creationDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:25.262669Z","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":647329.66462,"volume":22165748.213326484,"openInterest":745041.758044,"sortBy":"price","createdAt":"2025-05-02T14:55:28.249386Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-21T19:40:00.914977Z","competitive":0.9999750006249843,"volume24hr":27242.766203000006,"volume1wk":266597.1080239999,"volume1mo":751489.5183679999,"volume1yr":19233217.50024678,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":647329.66462,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":867,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Rockstar Games’ latest delay of Grand Theft Auto VI to November 19, 2026 has extended the window for major cultural and geopolitical events to occur beforehand, shaping trader sentiment around the multi-outcome market. 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If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.0025\", \"0.9975\"]","volume":"14620883.670695044","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T16:53:35.469183Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-21T19:38:15.518286Z","new":false,"featured":true,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xd8d82bd063da64aea9f8a0c10f7e0b1510d15cefb2468bccc94c0572336095a2","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":14620883.670695044,"liquidityNum":92240.18839,"endDateIso":"2026-05-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":70966.838216,"volume1wk":376948.0562369998,"volume1mo":924166.7359650005,"volume1yr":14600241.568793988,"clobTokenIds":"[\"8441400852834915183759801017793514978104486628517653995211751018945988243154\", \"109289569086508934142323222102974769075074494425163878721602922903101062859033\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":70966.838216,"volume1wkClob":376948.0562369998,"volume1moClob":924166.7359650005,"volume1yrClob":14600241.568793988,"volumeClob":14620883.670695044,"liquidityClob":92240.18839,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","events":[{"id":"23792","ticker":"gta-vi-released-before-june-2026","slug":"gta-vi-released-before-june-2026","title":"GTA VI released before June 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 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The studio cited the need for additional polish on the sprawling Vice City-set open-world experience, a stance reinforced by Take-Two Interactive's earnings guidance and consistent messaging across recent updates. This aligns with Rockstar's track record of prioritizing quality over rushed launches in blockbuster titles. While a surprise early release remains theoretically possible, the scale of prior postponements and ongoing development focus make it highly improbable. 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