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Rockstar's perfectionism has already delayed GTA VI twice to November 19, 2026, with no Trailer 3 despite April-May rumors, fueling skepticism on timely marketing before the market's July 31 close. Other music bets like Rihanna's ninth album (61%) and Playboi Carti's next (54%) trail due to studio sightings but no firm dates, while GPT-6 (70%) reflects AI hype; geopolitical and meme outcomes lag despite high volume. 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Rockstar's perfectionism has already delayed GTA VI twice to November 19, 2026, with no Trailer 3 despite April-May rumors, fueling skepticism on timely marketing before the market's July 31 close. Other music bets like Rihanna's ninth album (61%) and Playboi Carti's next (54%) trail due to studio sightings but no firm dates, while GPT-6 (70%) reflects AI hype; geopolitical and meme outcomes lag despite high volume. 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Rockstar's perfectionism has already delayed GTA VI twice to November 19, 2026, with no Trailer 3 despite April-May rumors, fueling skepticism on timely marketing before the market's July 31 close. Other music bets like Rihanna's ninth album (61%) and Playboi Carti's next (54%) trail due to studio sightings but no firm dates, while GPT-6 (70%) reflects AI hype; geopolitical and meme outcomes lag despite high volume. 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Watch Take-Two earnings for GTA updates and Drake's socials for rollout signals.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-04-20T19:46:29.876Z"}}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:47Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9997750506136119,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"22690","conditionId":"0x7b49b9bacb5f435bc10f3b100ff59e2fdd346f7f92a9001881bc9825a0af0f11","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":2,"startDate":"2025-05-02","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.01,"lastTradePrice":0.52,"bestBid":0.51,"bestAsk":0.52,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:04.723394Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"540844","question":"Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?","conditionId":"0xbb57ccf5853a85487bc3d83d04d669310d28c6c810758953b9d9b91d1aee89d2","slug":"will-bitcoin-hit-1m-before-gta-vi-872","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"506200.20592","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:17.361Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final \"High\" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nThe resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT \"High\" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.494\", \"0.506\"]","volume":"4006646.463573558","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T15:24:45.04244Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-20T19:46:37.338171Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Bitcoin hits $1m","groupItemThreshold":"7","questionID":"0x7e4ff7b7fdfe7d1fbc6c0e2a7626ae4fc8d62f3848a5e601d511a51bdfa51f09","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":4006646.463573558,"liquidityNum":506200.20592,"endDateIso":"2026-07-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":4788.8851859999995,"volume1wk":30556.064826999977,"volume1mo":314671.35795899713,"volume1yr":4006646.4635737906,"clobTokenIds":"[\"105267568073659068217311993901927962476298440625043565106676088842803600775810\", \"91863162118308663069733924043159186005106558783397508844234610341221325526200\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":4788.8851859999995,"volume1wkClob":30556.064826999977,"volume1moClob":314671.35795899713,"volume1yrClob":4006646.4635737906,"volumeClob":4006646.463573558,"liquidityClob":506200.20592,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","events":[{"id":"23784","ticker":"what-will-happen-before-gta-vi","slug":"what-will-happen-before-gta-vi","title":"What will happen before GTA VI?","description":"This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:25.262673Z","creationDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:25.262669Z","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":1752174.90774,"volume":21246202.55849256,"openInterest":724086.2554070001,"sortBy":"price","createdAt":"2025-05-02T14:55:28.249386Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-20T19:46:30.215632Z","competitive":0.9999640012959533,"volume24hr":23729.802244000006,"volume1wk":268531.88785099954,"volume1mo":1958749.978329017,"volume1yr":21246202.558493663,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":1752174.90774,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":815,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Drake releasing his long-teased \"Iceman\" album before GTA VI ships, pricing it at 90% implied probability amid the rapper's March teases, confirmed production, and track record of surprise drops like past OVO projects. Rockstar's perfectionism has already delayed GTA VI twice to November 19, 2026, with no Trailer 3 despite April-May rumors, fueling skepticism on timely marketing before the market's July 31 close. Other music bets like Rihanna's ninth album (61%) and Playboi Carti's next (54%) trail due to studio sightings but no firm dates, while GPT-6 (70%) reflects AI hype; geopolitical and meme outcomes lag despite high volume. Watch Take-Two earnings for GTA updates and Drake's socials for rollout signals.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-04-20T19:46:29.876Z"}}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:49Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9999640012959533,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"22689","conditionId":"0xbb57ccf5853a85487bc3d83d04d669310d28c6c810758953b9d9b91d1aee89d2","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":2,"startDate":"2025-05-02","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.002,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.001,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.0005,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.0055,"oneMonthPriceChange":0.0065,"lastTradePrice":0.494,"bestBid":0.493,"bestAsk":0.495,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:04.724576Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"540881","question":"GTA VI released before June 2026?","conditionId":"0xcccb7e7613a087c132b69cbf3a02bece3fdcb824c1da54ae79acc8d4a562d902","slug":"gta-vi-released-before-june-2026","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-05-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"71356.32739","startDate":"2025-05-02T17:00:26.233Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gta-vi-released-before-june-2026-igCgZsDMejF1.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gta-vi-released-before-june-2026-igCgZsDMejF1.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.0145\", \"0.9855\"]","volume":"13666494.182658052","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T16:53:35.469183Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-20T19:45:29.95662Z","new":false,"featured":true,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xd8d82bd063da64aea9f8a0c10f7e0b1510d15cefb2468bccc94c0572336095a2","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":13666494.182658052,"liquidityNum":71356.32739,"endDateIso":"2026-05-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":14607.334893,"volume1wk":130253.8508539998,"volume1mo":920126.261262,"volume1yr":13666494.182657966,"clobTokenIds":"[\"8441400852834915183759801017793514978104486628517653995211751018945988243154\", \"109289569086508934142323222102974769075074494425163878721602922903101062859033\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":14607.334893,"volume1wkClob":130253.8508539998,"volume1moClob":920126.261262,"volume1yrClob":13666494.182657966,"volumeClob":13666494.182658052,"liquidityClob":71356.32739,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","events":[{"id":"23792","ticker":"gta-vi-released-before-june-2026","slug":"gta-vi-released-before-june-2026","title":"GTA VI released before June 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-05-02T17:00:29.269386Z","creationDate":"2025-05-02T17:00:29.269383Z","endDate":"2026-05-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gta-vi-released-before-june-2026-igCgZsDMejF1.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gta-vi-released-before-june-2026-igCgZsDMejF1.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":70062.07378,"volume":13666488.140087051,"openInterest":198685.016375,"createdAt":"2025-05-02T16:53:34.884115Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-20T19:46:10.895742Z","competitive":0.8092511978435074,"volume24hr":14601.292322,"volume1wk":130435.92828299981,"volume1mo":920120.218691,"volume1yr":13666488.140086967,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":70062.07378,"commentCount":29,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":true,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"negRiskAugmented":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain conviction that Grand Theft Auto VI won't launch before June 2026, driven by Rockstar Games' official November 19, 2026 release date announced last November after pushing back from May 26. This second delay underscores Rockstar's perfectionist track record—seen in GTA V and Red Dead Redemption 2's multi-year polishes—prioritizing \"high level of polish\" amid massive hype for the PS5 and Xbox Series X/S exclusive. Take-Two Interactive reaffirmed the timeline in early 2026 earnings, with no new trailers, pre-orders, or certification signals suggesting acceleration. Realistic upsets remain slim: an unprecedented early gold status or digital surprise drop, though Rockstar's history defies such moves, keeping \"No\" locked at 98.6% implied probability.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-04-20T19:46:10.522Z"}}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T17:00:01Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8092511978435074,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"91133","conditionId":"0xcccb7e7613a087c132b69cbf3a02bece3fdcb824c1da54ae79acc8d4a562d902","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":0.001,"startDate":"2026-03-02","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"oneDayPriceChange":0.0005,"oneHourPriceChange":0.0005,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.004,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.012,"lastTradePrice":0.015,"bestBid":0.014,"bestAsk":0.015,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T16:59:24.952285Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"544092","question":"Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?","conditionId":"0xf398b0e5016eeaee9b0885ed84012b6dc91269ac10d3b59d60722859c2e30b2f","slug":"will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-no-prison-time","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"1694.85754","startDate":"2025-05-12T22:50:41.123Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/harvey-weinstein-prison-time-C0vjbSkDw4Cy.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/harvey-weinstein-prison-time-C0vjbSkDw4Cy.jpg","description":"This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.413\", \"0.587\"]","volume":"320189.54622900125","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-12T22:26:22.665665Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-20T19:45:21.607876Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"No Prison Time","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xaa0edfa656a0e70bf8c63f09438cd70979fef8e31fcc62d80840b5a375a55400","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":320189.54622900125,"liquidityNum":1694.85754,"endDateIso":"2025-12-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-12","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":622.6104959999999,"volume1wk":4687.139153,"volume1mo":155944.55471100018,"volume1yr":320189.5462290001,"clobTokenIds":"[\"24327803960645909378149041810697343640752122608192367041827900158592826352552\", \"86488478623677188352872801318507143761188967461168408688159600382919967378486\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":622.6104959999999,"volume1wkClob":4687.139153,"volume1moClob":155944.55471100018,"volume1yrClob":320189.5462290001,"volumeClob":320189.54622900125,"liquidityClob":1694.85754,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0xaa0edfa656a0e70bf8c63f09438cd70979fef8e31fcc62d80840b5a375a55400","negRiskRequestID":"0x568eb63b725b4f413c514498165e6383f25612ac8a278bee67fd629cef2ce519","events":[{"id":"24383","ticker":"harvey-weinstein-prison-time","slug":"harvey-weinstein-prison-time","title":"Harvey Weinstein prison time?","description":"This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-05-12T22:52:24.091151Z","creationDate":"2025-05-12T22:52:24.091148Z","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/harvey-weinstein-prison-time-C0vjbSkDw4Cy.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/harvey-weinstein-prison-time-C0vjbSkDw4Cy.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":16301.62978,"volume":853494.0864940018,"openInterest":52081.850361000004,"createdAt":"2025-05-12T22:26:22.013988Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-20T19:43:22.827256Z","competitive":0.99248785939226,"volume24hr":7286.424956,"volume1wk":36124.915194999994,"volume1mo":325196.2657400002,"volume1yr":853494.0864940003,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":16301.62978,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0xaa0edfa656a0e70bf8c63f09438cd70979fef8e31fcc62d80840b5a375a55400","commentCount":14,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":true,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-12T22:46:49.174275Z","requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's ultimate prison time reflects razor-thin uncertainty fueled by the kickoff of his third New York rape retrial this week, with jury selection wrapping April 17 and opening statements imminent, potentially adding up to four years to his tally but risking acquittal amid prior mistrials and appeals successes. The closely matched No Prison Time (41.3%) and 20-30 years (35.5%) implied probabilities stem from his ongoing appeal of the 16-year California rape sentence—consecutive to any New York term—combined with a pending sentencing on his 2025 New York criminal sexual act conviction (up to 25 years), while his frail health at age 74 and recent Rikers Island complaints of \"hellish\" isolation spark compassionate release speculation. 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